Morgenrapport, torsdag, 8. september 2011

Morgenrapport, torsdag, 8. september 2011 Olsen sier kronestyrkelsen får konsekvenser for Norges Bank Den tyske forfatningsdomstolen godkjenner redningspakker, men med betingelser Fed melder ikke overraskende om beskjeden vekst Internasjonalt Rente- og valutamarkedene roet seg noe i går, og aksjemarkedene tok seg noe inn igjen på begge sider av Atlanteren. Riksbanken lot som ventet sin nøkkelrente stå uendret og senket sin rentebane. Prosessen omkring de statsfinansielle krisene i Europa tok et skritt videre i og med den tyske forfatningsdomstolens kjennelse om at landets bidrag til redningspakker for andre land, som Hellas, faktisk er lovlige. Dette ble naturligvis mottatt med lettelse, men budskapet kom ikke uten betingelser. For at Tysklands regjering skal kunne delta i framtidige redningspakker, må den innhente godkjenning fra Forbundsdagens finanskomité. Dette kan for det første heve lista noe for hva som kan bli godtatt, og framfor alt vil dette forsinke framtidige beslutningsprosesser. Det italienske senatet vedtok i går den nye innstrammingsplanen på 54. mrd euro for å oppnå budsjettbalanse i 2013. Kuttet i budsjettet er ventet å bli endelig vedtatt i underhuset i løpet av de nærmeste dagene. Viktigste makrotall i går var statistikk for industriproduksjonen i juli i tyskland og Storbritannia. De britiske tallene understreket landets problemer med å opprettholde positiv vekst, mens tallene for Tyskland overrasket stort på oppsida. Dette var naturligvis kjærkomment etter de mange svake tallene i det siste. Men som vi har sett, peker framoverskuende indikatorer som PMI bare forsiktig oppover; og som nevnt i går, viser ordrestatistikken tegn til å flate ut. Fra Fed fikk vi Beige Book, som i forkant av hvert FOMC-møte gir en verbal oppsummering av den økonomiske utviklinga i hvert av de tolv Fed-regionene. Oppsummeringa bygger på samtaler som hver Fed-bank har med næringslivet i sine respektive regioner. Ikke overraskende ble det denne gangen meldt om beskjeden vekst og i noen tilfeller tilbakegang. Det var som vanlig regionale forskjeller ut fra den uvanlig svake Philadelphia Fed-indeksen for august var det ikke overraskende å se at denne regionen meldte om spesiell svakhet. Sektormessig ble det meldt om rimelig bra vekst for privat konsum, turistnæring og tjenester, mens industrien gjennomgående er svak og jordbruket holdes tilbake av dårlig vær. Som nevnt var ikke dette særlig overraskende, og noen markedsreaksjon var det da heller ikke å spore. Men rapporten vil danne bakteppe for presidentens tale til Kongressen i kveld, der han ventes å søke støtte for infrastrukturinvesteringer og for kutt i arbeidsgiveravgiften. Sentralbanksjef Bernanke skal også holde tale. Viktigste europeiske begivenheter i dag blir rentemøtene i ESB og BoE. Ingen av dem ventes å endre rentenivået, men BoE kan komme til å annonsere ny omgang med kvantitative lettelser for å stimulere til litt vekst, og det til tross for fortsatt høy inflasjon. ESB vil nok tone ned sin retorikk denne gangen og slutte å gi signaler om mulig renteheving framover. Tross svak vekst er det nok ennå for tidlig å vente nye kutt, men dette kan komme seinere i høst. For eksempel kan det bli aktuelt når Mario Draghi i november tar over som sentralbanksjef. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

Norge Ifølge Norges Banks forhåndsannonsering av sentralbankens tale i Rena i går, i regi av Sparebanken Hedmark, skulle ikke denne talen inneholde noe nytt. Derfor ble vi noe overrasket over at sentralbanksjefen likevel benyttet denne anledningen til å kommentere tirsdagens kronestyrkelse etter den sveitsiske sentralbankens annonsering av fastkurs mot euro. Han uttalte at krona har styrket seg dramatisk og at den klart er sterkere enn forutsatt i Norges Banks analyser. Dette var jo et rimelig klart signal om at bevegelsene ville få konsekvenser for Norges Banks beslutninger, noe han faktisk sa eksplisitt. Riktig nok var han omhyggelig med å presisere at sentralbanken ikke har noe spesifikt kursmål, men la raskt til at kronestyrkelsen ville få konsekvenser aktivitet og prisstigning. Så passet han på å si at Norge og Sveits ikke kan sammenliknes og forsøkte å snakke krona ned ved å minne om den begrensede likviditeten i kronemarkedet. Kanskje han lykkes noe i dette idet krona svekket seg etter uttalelsen etter at den hadde styrket seg videre i morgentimene. Men det vil naturligvis ta noe tid før vi ser hvor krona blir liggende. Disse uttalelsene illustrerer igjen den forskjellen vi tidligere har påpekt mellom Olsens og hans forgjengers stil. Han virker langt mer ivrig etter å reagere på kronebevegelser. Å hevde at dette skal bety rentekutt den 21. denne måneden, er antakelig å gå litt langt. Men vi føler nok at risikoen klart er til stede. En annen faktor som i og for seg kunne svekke krona, var nyheten om at industriproduksjonen fortsatte å falle betydelig fra juni til juli etter å ha falt like betydelig måneden før. Fallet kom først og fremst i matvareindustrien og primærmetall, mens produksjonen av skip og plattformer viste positiv vekst. Dermed snudde trenden fra flat til negativ. Vi synes det er litt drastisk å vente at trenden skal fortsette nedover, men venter likevel bare beskjeden vekst resten av høsten. I løpet av natten har krona ligget stille mot euroen, og noteres til 7,59 i skrivende stund. En sak for seg er at innkjøpssjefsindeksen PMI har vist seg som en elendig prediktor for industriproduksjonen det siste året. Mens PMI-en har konsekvent ligget godt over 50, har produksjonen ligget stille eller altså falt. I dag får vi SSBs oppdaterte makroprognoser for norsk økonomi. Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, +47 223 97 181, knmo01@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, +47 2239 7007, kadu01@handelsbanken.no Ida Wolden Bache, +47 223 97 340, idba01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, +47 228 23 010, nikn02@handelsbanken.no Ansvarlig for dagens morgenrapport: Knut Anton Mork 8. september 2011 2

Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK 7,5888 EUR/USD 1,4069 2,43 2,90 3,10 3,32 3,68 USD/NOK 5,3953 USD/JPY 77,31 SEK/NOK 0,8456 EUR/JPY 108,77 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1,0188 EUR/GBP 0,8824 2 ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 8,6032 GBP/USD 1,5950 3,01 3,07 3,28 3,50 3,76 CHF/NOK 6,2783 EUR/CHF 1,2088 JPY/NOK 6,9775 EUR/SEK 8,9800 Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK 5,7172 EUR/DKK 7,4483 Foliorente 2,25 2,25 2,25 SGD/NOK 4,4642 USD/KRW 1074,9 EUR/NOK 7,80 7,70 7,60 CAD/NOK 5,4724 USD/RUB 29,4750 Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 10:00 Norge Industriproduksjon Juli Prosent m/m -1,5 0,9-1,5 10:30 Storbritannia Industriproduksjon Juli Prosent m/m 0,0 0,1-0,2 12:00 Tyskland Industriproduksjon Juli Prosent m/m -1,1 0,5 4,0 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 10:00 Norge SSBs oppdaterte makroprognoser 13:00 Storbritannia BoE annonsering 13:45 Eurosonen ESB annonsering 14:30 USA Nye dagpengesøknader Forrige uke Tusen 409 410 -- 14:30 USA Handelsbalanse Juli $mrd -53,1-51,0 -- 8. september 2011 3

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