Morgenrapport. Macro Research. Internasjonalt. fredag, 22. november PMI i eurosonen indikerer avmatning i den økonomiske veksten

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1 fredag, 22. november 2013 Morgenrapport Macro Research PMI i eurosonen indikerer avmatning i den økonomiske veksten Nye dagpengesøknader i USA faller mer enn ventet Svakere amerikansk industrisentiment på USAs østkyst Vi venter en svak oppgang i økonomisk sentiment i Sverige i november Internasjonalt Økonomisk sentiment i eurosonen målt ved PMIundersøkelsen falt ytterligere tilbake i november i følge foreløpige tall. PMI composite, som måler samlet utvikling i industrien og tjenestesektoren falt til 51,5 i november, ned fra 51,9 i oktober. Indeksen ligger dermed over 50-linjen, som skiller ekspansjon fra kontraksjon, for femte måned på rad, men indikerer at veksttakten i privat sektor er i ferd med å avta. PMI for industrien steg imidlertid videre i november til 51,5, fra 51,3 i oktober, men PMI for tjenestesektoren falt til 50,9 i november, ned fra 51,6 i oktober. På forhånd var det ventet at også tjenestesentimentet ville bedre seg i november. Nye ordre utviklet seg fortsatt positivt i november, men veksttakten var på samme svake nivå som i oktober. Nye ordre i industrien trakk totale ordre opp, særlig som følge av en bedring i eksportordrene for industrien. I følge novembermålingen falt sysselsettingen i privat sektor i eurosonen for 23. måned på rad, og sysselsettingsfallet tiltok for andre måned på rad. Sysselsettingsfallet var sterkest innenfor tjenestesektoren. Prisene på innsatsvarer fortsatte å stige i november, men prisene på ferdigvarer fortsatte å falle, og prisfallet var det sterkeste på tre måneder. Som vanlig var det også markerte forskjeller mellom landene i eurosonen. I Tyskland steg PMI composite for syvende måned på rad og nådde sitt høyeste nivå siden januar. Det økonomiske sentimentet ser ut til å indikere robust vekst både i industrien og tjenestesektoren. På den andre siden falt PMI composite for Frankrike til sitt laveste nivå siden juni, med målinger under 50 for både industrien og tjenestesektoren. Dermed indikerer PMI-undersøkelsen at veksten i økonomisk aktivitet i Frankrike igjen er negativ etter kun to måneder med skjør vekst. Konsumenttilliten i eurosonen, slik den måles av EU-kommisjonen (DG ECFIN), falt også i november og forsterker dermed inntrykket av at veksten i eurosonen mister momentum. Indeksen falt for første gang på et år, og endte på -15,4 i november, ned fra -14,5 i oktober. Konsumenttilliten har riktignok utviklet seg en del sterkere enn den faktiske konsumveksten i eurosonen, men det at indeksen ligger lavere så langt i 4. kvartal enn hva den gjorde i 3. kvartal kan i hvert fall tyde på at konsumveksten ikke er i ferd med å ta seg opp. Tallet på nye dagpengesøknader i USA falt mer enn ventet i forrige uke og tyder på at bedringen i det amerikanske arbeidsmarkedet fortsetter. Etter betydelige dataproblemer tidligere i høst og den midlertidige nedstengningen av føderale tjenester har tallene for nye dagpengesøknader vært vanskelige å tolke i en periode. Men nå ser det ut til at ingen ekstraordinære forhold påvirker tallene, som altså viste en bedre utvikling enn ventet. Riktignok inneholdt forrige uke en fridag (Veterans Day), som kan komplisere sesongjusteringen av tallene. Konsensus hadde ventet at antallet nye dagpengesøknader skulle falle til i forrige uke, ned fra uken før, men antallet søknader falt vesentlig mer til Antallet nye søknader for to uker siden ble revidert opp fra til , men totalen per forrige uke er likevel bedre enn ventet. Industrisentimentet på USAs østkyst, målt ved Philladelphia Fed-indeksen, falt overraskende til 6,5 i november, ned fra 19,8 i oktober. Konsensus hadde på forhånd ventet en mindre tilbakegang til 15,0. Utviklingen i Philadelphia Fed-indeksen er kjent for å være preget av store svingninger, og må derfor tolkes med varsomhet. Hovedindeksen for Phillymålingen er basert på et enkelt spørsmål om hva man tror om forretningsutsiktene, mens den landsdekkende ISM-indeksen, som er langt mindre volatil, er basert på en aggregering av flere underindekser. I novembermålingen for industrisentimentet i Philadelpiha-regionen trakk særlig nye ordre ned. Sysselsettingen trakk også ned, og det samme gjorde vareforsendelser. Det eneste som trakk opp var lager. Forventningene til de kommende 6 månedene falt også, men ligger fortsatt på et høyt nivå. Den svake utviklingen i Philadelphia-regionen kommer i tillegg til svak utvikling i industrisentimentet også i New York-regionen i november. I går fikk For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenrapport, 22. November 2013 vi i tillegg Markit s PMI-måling for industrisentimentet i hele USA i november. Denne målingen, som antakelig overdrev svakheten i industrien i oktober, steg i følge foreløpige tall til 54,3 i november, opp fra 51,8 i oktober. Industrisentimentet på USAs østkyst kan indikere på at veksten i industriaktiviteten kan komme til å avta noe framover siden mye av produksjonen i 3. kvartal havnet på lager. Men bildet blir ikke fullstendig før vi får novembertallene for den landsdekkende industrisentimentmålingen, ISM, som publiseres 2. desember. I dag kommer tall for industrisentimentet i Kansas-regionen, og konsensus venter et tilbake fall i industrisentiment også her, fra 8 i oktober til 5 i november. I dag får vi tall for økonomisk sentiment i Sverige. Våre svenske kollegaer venter at industrisentimentet målt ved MCI vil stige noe videre til 101,8 i november, fra 101,2 i oktober. Gitt at industrisentimentet, målt ved PMI falt tilbake i oktober venter vi at oppgangen i MCI i november blir begrenset. En oppsiderisiko på dette estimatet er imidlertid den gode utviklingen i innenlandske ordre, som antakelig hadde mindre innvirkning på PMI-målingen, som domineres av færre og større selskaper med størst eksponering mot utlandet. Konsumenttilliten venter vi vil stige så vidt til 102,1 i november, opp fra 102,0 i oktober, slik at den positive trenden i konsumenttilliten fortsetter. For konjunkturbarometeret venter vi en økning til 102,0 i november, opp fra 101,6 i oktober. Handelsbankens prognoser ligger noe over konsensus. Norge Krysset EUR/NOK endte på 8,2170 i gårsdagens handel etter en åpning på 8,2230. I løpet av natten har krysset handlet innenfor det smale intervallet 8,20-8,2220. Vi ser fremdeles for oss at krona kan handle rundt 8,20-nivået de neste dagene. Viktige nivå på oppsiden er fremdeles 8,2450, mens et brudd av 8,17 kan signalisere en videre styrking av krona. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Kari Due-Andresen Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , knmo01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, , kadu01@handelsbanken.no Marius Gonsholt Hov, , maho60@handelsbanken.no Vi venter ingen nøkkeldata for norsk økonomi i dag. 2

3 Morgenrapport, 22. November 2013 Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 02:45 Kina HSBC Marki PMI industri November Indeks 50,9 50,8 50,4 09:00 Danmark Konsumenttillit November Indeks 4,6 4,3 4 Danmark Detaljomsetning Oktober Prosent å/å -2, :30 Tyskland PMI industri, foreløpig November Indeks 51,7 52,0 52,5 Tyskland PMI tjenester, foreløpig November Indeks 52,9 53,0 54,5 10:00 Eurosonen PMI industri, foreløpig November Indeks 51,3 51,5 51,5 Eurosonen PMI tjenester, foreløpig November Indeks 51,6 51,9 50,9 Eurosonen PMI samlet, foreløpig November Indeks 51,9 52,0 51,5 14:30 USA Nye dagpengesøkere Uke 46 Tusen personer USA PPI kjerne Oktober Prosent m/m 0,1 0,1 0,2-14:58 USA Markit PMI industri November Indeks 51,8 52,4 54,3 16:00 Eurosonen Konsumenttillit, foreløpig November Indeks -14,5-14,0-15,4 16:00 USA Philly Fed November Indeks 19,8 15,0 6,5 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 08:00 Tyskland BNP, 2. estimat 3. kvartal Prosent kv/kv 0,3 0, :15 Sverige Konjunkturbarometeret November Indeks 101,6 101,8 102,0 Industrisentiment November Indeks 101,2 100,6 101,8 Konsumenttillit November Indeks ,1 10:00 Tyskland IFO forretningsklima November Indeks 107,4 107,7 -- IFO forventninger November Indeks 103,6 104,0 -- IFO nåsituasjon November Indeks 111,3 111, :00 Tyskland Importpriser Oktober Prosent år/år -2, :00 USA Kansas Fed ind.sentiment November Balanse 8 5-3

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