tirsdag, 13. mai 2014 Macro Research Morgenrapport Kinesiske nøkkeltall litt på den svake siden av forventningene, avmatningen har fortsatt inn i 2.kv. Inflasjonen i Sverige er igjen ventet å falle under Riksbankens prognose og det er nå priset inn høy sannsynlighet for rentekutt i juli Det ventes videre vekst i detaljomsetningen i USA, men april-tallet vil nok dempes av nedgang i bilsaget De tyske ZEW-tallene vil trolig vise ny nedgang i forventningene til veksten fremover Internasjonalt Rett før morgenrapporten gikk i trykken fikk vi ferske nøkkeltall fra Kina, som kom inn noe svakere enn ventet. Årsveksten i industriproduksjonen falt fra 8,8 prosent i mars til 8,7 prosent i april, mens markedet hadde sett for seg en liten oppgang til 8,9 prosent. Detaljomsetningen skuffet også på nedsiden, ettersom årsveksten falt fra 12,2 prosent i mars til 11,9 prosent i april. Det var på forhånd ventet uendret årsvekst i detaljomsetningen. Også investeringsveksten var lavere enn ventet. Investeringene viste en årsvekst på 17,3 prosent, mens konsensus hadde sett for seg 17,7 prosent. Dermed ser det ut til at vekstavmatningen i den kinesiske økonomien har fortsatt videre inn i andre kvartal. Nå vet vi at myndighetene er på ballen med finanspolitiske tiltak for å understøtte veksten, samtidig som det spekuleres i at også pengepolitikken vil gjøres mer ekspansiv. Inflasjonen har nemlig falt ned til rater som ligger godt under myndighetenes målsetning for prisveksten i år, og dette gir rom for å føre en mer ekspansiv pengepolitikk. Trolig vil dette i første rekke dreie seg om kutt i bankenes reservekrav, slik at mer likviditet kan tilføres markedet. Uansett tiltak tror vi at veksten i Kina vil bli noe lavere enn i fjor. Vi anslår at BNP-veksten avtar til 7,3 prosent i år, ned fra 7,7 prosent i fjor. I dag får vi viktige inflasjonstall for Sverige. Årsveksten i kjerneinflasjonen falt helt ned til 0 prosent i mars, og dette var klart svakere enn hva Riksbanken hadde sett for seg; de hadde anslått årsveksten til 0,3 prosent. Det hører også med til historien at Riksbanken hadde foretatt en betydelig nedjustering av sine inflasjonsprognoser rett i forkant av dette tallet, og dermed var dette en solid overraskelse på nedsiden. Imidlertid ventes det nå at prognoseavviket har blitt noe mindre. Våre svenske analytikere ser for seg en årsvekst i kjerneprisene på 0,5 prosent i april, mens Riksbanken venter 0,6 prosent. Konsensus har på sin side lagt til grunn en vekst på 0,4 prosent, og skulle dette slå til innebærer det et forholdsvis stort prognoseavvik for Riksbankens del. Sannsynligheten for rentekutt ved Riksbankens neste rentemøte i juli er allerede stor. Ikke bare fordi inflasjonen ligger under Riksbankens prognose, men kanskje særlig fordi den begynner å bli faretruende lav. Kjerneinflasjonen har faktisk beveget seg langs en nedadgående tendens helt siden finanskrisen, og Riksbanken har fått mye kritikk for å føre en for stram pengepolitikk. For eksempel har Paul Krugman omtalt Riksbankens pengepolitikk som sadomonetarisme. Problemet med lav inflasjon er at det gir økte realrenter, hvilket i neste runde demper vekst i konsum og investeringer, i tillegg til at realverdien av gjeldsbyrden i økonomien blir større enn hva den ellers ville ha vært. Enda mer alvorlig er det at inflasjonsforventningene kan begynne å glippe. Og skulle de gjøre det, vil ikke pengepolitikken fungere etter hensikten. Da har pengepolitikken mistet sitt nominelle anker. I tillegg til bekymringene rundt lav inflasjon, må vi også ta med at vi i det siste har fått dårlige nyheter om utviklingen i industrisektoren. Samtidig har vi sett at stemningen blant svenske husholdninger har fortsatt å svekke seg. Dette gjør at vekstbildet nå ser litt mer moderat ut enn tidligere antatt. Summen av alt dette gjør at markedet nå priser inn en høy sannsynlighet for rentekutt i juli. Fra USA får vi detaljomsetningstallene for april. Vi har sett at konsumveksten tok seg godt opp i februar og mars, men nedgang i bilsaget i april er ventet å ha dempet konsumveksten denne måneden. Konsensus ser for seg at detaljomsetningen steg med 0,4 prosent i april, ned fra 1,2 prosent i mars. Utenom biler ventes imidlertid veksttakten å ha vært så å si uendret. Her legger konsensus til grunn en vekst på 0,6 prosent i april, så vidt ned fra 0,7 prosent i mars. For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenrapport, 13. May 2014 Fra Tyskland får vi i dag tallene for investorsentimentet i Tyskland, målt ved ZEW-indeksen. Det ventes at denne vil vise den samme tendensen som vi har sett i de foregående månedene, nemlig at vurderingen av nåsituasjonen holder seg oppe, mens forventningene til veksten fremover er justert ned ytterligere noen hakk. Dette kan ha sammenheng med vi i det siste har sett et fall i tysk industriproduksjon og eksport, trolig som følge av vekstavmatningen i Kina kombinert med at uroen i Ukraina har rammet eksporten til Russland. Konsensus venter at indeksen som fanger opp forventningene til den økonomiske veksten fremover falt fra 43,2 i april til 41,0 i mai. Norge EUR/NOK endte opp på 8,1475 ved stenging i amerikansk handletid i går kveld. I løpet av nattetimene har det kun vært små bevegelser. Krysset, som nå ligger 10 øre lavere sammenlignet med forrige tirsdag, viser dermed tegn til stabilisering. Kronestyrkingen mot euro den siste uken kan nok ses i sammenheng med en bred eurosvekkelse (etter ESB-møtet forrige torsdag), godt hjulpet av en økning i den relative rentedifferansen i favør av NOK. At norske nøkkeltall tilsynelatende ikke har skuffet kan også ha bidratt til å dempe risikopremien på krona den siste tiden. Første støttenivå er nå i underkant av 8,12, mens en bevegelse over 8,17- nivået kan på nytt varsle en svakere NOK-utvikling. Det ventes ingen norske nøkkeltall i dag. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Marius Gonsholt Hov Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, +47 223 97 181, knmo01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, +47 228 23 010, nikn02@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, +47 223 97 007, kadu01@handelsbanken.no Marius Gonsholt Hov, +47-223 97 340, maho60@handelsbanken.no 2
Morgenrapport, 13. May 2014 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND EUR/NOK 8.1480 EUR/USD 1.3761 1.65 1.73 1.81 1.91 USD/NOK 5.9245 USD/JPY 102.25 SEK/NOK 0.9023 EUR/JPY 140.69 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1.0920 EUR/GBP 0.8155 2 ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 10.0075 GBP/USD 1.6877 2.04 2.19 2.54 2.83 3.12 CHF/NOK 6.6765 EUR/CHF 1.2213 JPY/NOK 5.7926 EUR/SEK 9.0382 Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK 5.5378 EUR/DKK 7.4645 Foliorente 1.50 1.50 1.50 SGD/NOK 4.7289 USD/KRW 1022.4 EUR/NOK 8.30 8.30 8.20 CAD/NOK 5.4350 USD/RUB 34.9910 3
Morgenrapport, 13. May 2014 Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 09:00 Danmark KPI April Prosent år/år 0,4 0,7 0,7 10:00 Norge Total kreditt (K3) Februar Prosent år/år 5,9 -- 4,9 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 07:30 Kina Industriproduksjon April Prosent år/år 8,8 8,9 Faktisk: 8,7 Detaljomsetning April Prosent år/år 12,2 12,2 Faktisk:11,9 Investeringer April Prosent år/år 17,6 17,7 Faktisk: 17,3 09:30 Sverige KPI April Prosent år/år -0,6-0,2-0,1 KPI kjerne April Prosent år/år 0 0,4 0,5 10:00 Italia Harmonisert KPI, endelig April Prosent år/år 0,6 0,6 -- 11:00 Tyskland ZEW sentimentindikator Mai Indeks 43,2 41,0 -- ZEW nåsituasjon Mai Indeks 59,5 60,5 -- 11:00 Italia Auksjon statsobligasjoner Norge Auksjon statsobligasjoner 13:30 USA NFIB optimisme småbedr. April Indeks 93,4 94,5 -- Eksportpriser April Prosent m/m 0,8 0,3 -- Importpriser April Prosent m/m 0,6 0,3 -- Detaljomsetning April Prosent m/m 1,2 0,4 -- 16:00 Lagerinvesteringer Mars Prosent m/m 0,4 0,4 -- 4
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