onsdag, 27. september 2017 Morgenrapport Macro Research Konsumenttilliten i USA fortsatt på høye nivåer i september ifølge Conference Board Årsvekstraten i nye industriordre i USA antas å ha holdt seg oppe i august Handelsbanken venter en liten svekkelse av svensk økonomisk sentiment i september Som ventet falt AKU-ledigheten til 4,2 prosent i juli (jun-aug snitt) Internasjonalt Konsumenttilliten i USA, målt av Conference Boardundersøkelsen, ble så vidt svakere enn konsensusforventningen i september. Indeksen falt til 119,8, mens konsensusforventningen var på 120. Augusttallene ble også revidert ned til en indeksverdi på 120,4 fra tidligere 122,9. Men til tross for en noe svakere utvikling enn antatt, ligger den amerikanske konsumenttilliten slik den måles av Conference Board, fortsatt på høye nivåer. Ifølge denne undersøkelsen ligger konsumenttilliten fortsatt omtrent på samme nivå som det den akselererte til i etterkant av presidentvalget i fjor høst. I følge Conference Board holdes stemningen i amerikanske husholdninger høy både av synet på nåsituasjonen og av optimistiske framtidsforventninger. Det skal imidlertid sies at amerikansk konsumenttillit, målt av University of Michigan-undersøkelsen, har vist en langt mer beskjeden oppgang etter presidentvalget. I dag får vi de svenske konjunkturindikatorene for september målt av Konjunkturbarometeret. Våre svenske kollegaer venter en forsiktig nedgang i den brede sentimentindikatoren, drevet av et fall i industrisentimentet. Sistnevnte må ses i lys av det bratte fallet i den separate PMI-indeksen for industrisektoren. På den annen side ser svenskene for seg noe oppgang i konsumenttilliten. Konsumenttilliten falt i løpet av august, trukket ned av synet på både egen og landets økonomi. Men svenske nøkkeltall har overrasket positivt i det siste, og våre kollegaer i Stockholm legger da til grunn at konsumenttilliten har svingt noe opp igjen. Fra USA får vi i dag tall for nye ordre av varige industrivarer i august. Disse tallene svinger mye, og totale ordre ventes å ha steget med 1,0 prosent i august etter et fall på hele 6,8 prosent i juli. Men justert for de svært volatile transportordrene, er konsensusforventningen at ordrene har steget med 0,3 prosent i august etter en vekst på 0,6 prosent i juli. Dermed antas årsvekstraten i den underliggende ordretilveksten å fortsatt holde seg rundt 6 prosent hvor den har holdt seg siden mars i år. For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenrapport, 27. september 2017 Norge I følge Arbeidskraftundersøkelsen (AKU) til SSB hadde sysselsettingen steget med 8 000 personer i juli (jun-aug snitt), mens arbeidsstyrken hadde vokst med 5000. Dermed falt arbeidsledigheten med 3000 personer, og ledighetsraten falt til 4,2 prosent fra 4,3 prosent i juni. Dette var i tråd med både vår forventning og konsensusforventningen. Norges Bank har antatt at AKU-ledigheten skal ha et snitt på 4,2 prosent i 3.kvartal, så foreløpig er utviklingen i tråd med sentralbankens forventning. AKU-ledigheten har holdt seg rimelig stabil så langt i år. I følge AKU har sysselsettingsveksten vært nokså svak, men det har også veksten i arbeidsstyrken. Men som tidligere nevnt er det grunn til å tro at AKU-tallene har undervurdert den egentlige veksten i sysselsettingen i norsk økonomi. Her referer vi spesielt til at sysselsettingstallene i BNP har vist en bedre utvikling. Men samtidig tyder ny informasjon (regionalt nettverk) på at sysselsettingsveksten er i ferd med å dempe seg så vidt. Når vi også tar hensyn til at yrkesdeltagelsen i Norge har falt til et konjunkturelt bunnpunkt, må vi regne med at en del av de som har gått ut av arbeidsstyrken vil forsøke å komme tilbake til arbeidsmarkedet. I alt holder vi fortsatt en knapp på at den videre nedgangen i ledigheten vil bli gradvis. Som sagt har det ikke vært store endringer i AKU-ledigheten hittil i år, og utviklingen har vært godt i tråd med vår prognose om en gjennomsnittlig AKU-ledighet på 4,2 prosent for året som helhet. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Kari Due-Andresen Analytikere Kari Due-Andresen, +47 223 97 007, kadu01@handelsbanken.no Marius Gonsholt Hov, +47-223 97 340, maho60@handelsbanken.no Halfdan Grangård, +47-223 97 181, hagr11@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, +47 228 23 010, nikn02@handelsbanken.no 2
Morgenrapport, 27. september 2017 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND EUR/NOK 9,3072 EUR/USD 1,1773 0,62 0,65 0,79 0,90 USD/NOK 7,9057 USD/JPY 112,4400 SEK/NOK 0,9711 EUR/JPY 132,3800 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1,2509 EUR/GBP 0,8776 2 ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 10,6072 GBP/USD 1,3417 1,110 1,235 1,480 1,685 1,925 CHF/NOK 8,1392 EUR/CHF 1,1436 JPY/NOK 7,0321 EUR/SEK 9,5861 Vår prognose 3.kv.2017 4.kv.2017 1.kv.2018 AUD/NOK 6,2133 EUR/DKK 7,4408 Foliorente 0,50 0,50 0,50 SGD/NOK 5,8244 USD/KRW 1139,2800 EUR/NOK 9,20 9,10 9,00 CAD/NOK 6,3940 USD/RUB 57,8948 Kilde: Bloomberg Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 16:00 USA Nyboligsalg August Tusen, annual. 580 588 560 USA Konsumenttillit September Indeks 120,4 120,0 119,8 16:00 USA Richmond Fed industrisent. September Indeks 14 13 19 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 08:00 Norge AKU-ledighet Juli Prosent 4,3 4,2 Faktisk: 4,2 09:00 Sverige Konjunkturbarometeret September Indeks 110,7 111,3 109,0 Industrisentiment September Indeks 117,1 115,0 114 Konsumenttillit September Indeks 100,3 102,0 102,0 14:30 USA Nye ordre varige ind.varer August Prosent m/m -6,8 1,0 -- Nye ordre u/transport August Prosent m/m 0,6 0,3 -- Ordre siv.kap.varer u/fly August Prosent m/m 1,0 0,3 -- 3
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