tirsdag, 23. januar 2018 Morgenrapport Macro Research Nedstengingen av statsadministrasjonen er over i USA; 8. februar må en ny avtale på plass BoJ gjorde som ventet ingen endringer i pengepolitikken Tynn kalender i dag; både tysk ZEW og konsumenttilliten i eurosonen ventes på gode nivåer Internasjonalt Og like fort som den startet, var nedstengningen av statsadministrasjonen i USA over for denne gang. Så langt har Kongressen bare lyktes med å få vedtatt en forlengelse av finansieringen til 8. februar. Et flertall av demokratene stilte seg til slutt bak forslaget fra Representantenes hus etter å ha fått forsikringer om at en avtale kunne nås for 800 000 ulovlige immigranter som ble brakt til USA som barn. Samtidig betyr dette at det innen drøye 2 uker må lykkes både Representantenes hus og Senatet å bli enige om et endelig budsjett, eller nok en kortsiktig forlengelse. Den kortvarige nedstengningen vil åpenbart ikke ha noen effekt på samlet verdiskapning i USA, og hverken valuta- eller rentemarkedet beveget seg vesentlig på nyheten. Det reflekterte nok en forventning om at nedstengningen neppe ville bli langvarig. Bank of Japan (BoJ) rapporterte i natt at de lot renten være uendret på -0,1 prosent. Samtidig holdt de også fast på målet for renten på 10-årige statsobligasjoner rundt null. Som kjent kjøper BoJ statsobligasjoner blant annet med en målsetning om at renten på 10-årige papirer skal holdes nær null. Beslutningene denne gangen var bredt forankret i markedet på forhånd. Rentekomiteen holdt også fast ved vekst og inflasjonsanslagene sine fra forrige møte. Det er for øvrig første gang siden juli 2014 at de ikke nedjusterte inflasjonsanslagene. Januar-utgaven av ZEW-undersøkelsen av det tyske investorsentimentet slippes i dag. I desember falt forventningsindeksen for første gang på 3 måneder til 17,4. Muligens er det den vedvarende politiske usikkerheten i Tyskland som bidro til fallet. I helgen stemte endelig SPD for å gå i regjeringssamtaler med Merkels CDU. Disse forhandlingene kan lede til at vi får på plass en styringsdyktig regjering, men det er gjenstår altså fortsatt å bleke litt lerret før alt er på plass. Uansett vil ikke den utviklingen ha spilt en rolle for investorsentimentet i januar, siden gjennombruddet i regjeringssamtalene ikke kom i tide. Konsensus venter at både indeksen for vurderingen av nåsituasjonen og indeksen for forventninger steg litt i januar. Data for den tyske økonomien fortsetter å komme inn på den sterke siden, noe som også reflekteres i aksjemarkedet. Litt senere på dagen får vi en ny måling av konsumenttilliten i eurosonen. Konsensus venter en marginal oppgang fr a0,5 i desember til 0,6 i januar. Konsumenttilliten i eurosonen har steget jevnt og trutt siden sommeren 2016 i takt med at økonomien har styrket seg. Vi må nå tilbake til 2001 for å finne målinger på et høyere nivå enn det vi hadde i desember. Med god økonomisk vekst, solid sysselsettingsvekst og dertil hørende fall i arbeidsledigheten, og fortsatt svært lave renter, ligger da også alt til rette for at stemningen i husholdningene skal holde seg fortsatt høy. Vi tar også med at vi i dag får Richmond Feds måling av det regionale industrisentimentet i januar. Også denne temperaturmålingen har trendet oppover siden sommeren 2016. I desember falt indeksen fra 30 til 20, og konsensus venter ytterligere litt nedgang til 18 i januar. Så langt i januar har de regionale målingene fra New York og Phildelphia vist små fall, og konsensusforventningen er nok basert på utviklingen der. Det er imidlertid lite i den generelle utviklingen som tyder på at industrien i USA skulle ha dårlige vilkår for tiden, så januar-utviklingen er nok mer et utslag av vær og sesong. Med en svak dollar og god vekst både ute og hjemme, er det mye som ligger til rette for god utvikling for amerikansk industri i månedene som kommer. For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenrapport, 23. januar 2018 Norge Krysset EUR/NOK handlet så vidt under 9,59-nivået (9,587) i går etter at konjunkturindikatoren for industrien i 4. kvartal steg fra forrige kvartal. Kronestyrken ebbet imidlertid ut i løpet av dagen, og krysset endte i underkant av 9,64-nivået i går kveld. I løpet av nattetimene har det kun vært små bevegelser. Aktørene skuer trolig allerede nå mot torsdagens renteannonseringer i ESB og Norges Bank, hvor det riktignok ikke ventes å komme noen nye pengepolitiske signaler, men overraskelser vil dermed potensielt kunne bidra til store bevegelser. Vi venter ingen nøkkeltall for norsk økonomi i dag. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Halfdan Grangård Analytikere Kari Due-Andresen, +47 223 97 007, kadu01@handelsbanken.no Marius Gonsholt Hov, +47-223 97 340, maho60@handelsbanken.no Halfdan Grangård, +47-223 97 181, hagr11@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, +47 228 23 010, nikn02@handelsbanken.no 2
Morgenrapport, 23. januar 2018 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND EUR/NOK 9,6411 EUR/USD 1,2257 0,72 0,74 0,86 0,94 USD/NOK 7,8659 USD/JPY 111,0400 SEK/NOK 0,9796 EUR/JPY 136,1000 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1,2952 EUR/GBP 0,8765 2 ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 11,0001 GBP/USD 1,3985 1,210 1,400 1,685 1,890 2,090 CHF/NOK 8,1752 EUR/CHF 1,1794 JPY/NOK 7,0849 EUR/SEK 9,8444 Vår prognose 1.kv.2018 2.kv.2018 3.kv.2018 AUD/NOK 6,2796 EUR/DKK 7,4441 Foliorente 0,50 0,50 0,50 SGD/NOK 5,9640 USD/KRW 1070,3000 EUR/NOK 9,50 9,40 9,30 CAD/NOK 6,3154 USD/RUB 56,5220 Kilde: Bloomberg Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 08:00 Norge Konj.barometer for industri 4.kvartal Indeks 3,2 -- 6,4 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Indeks Desember Indeks 0,11 0,22 0,27 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 04:00 Japan Styringsrente (rentemøte) Januar Prosent -0,1-0,1 Faktisk: -0,1 09:00 Sverige Sentralbanksjef Ingves i åpen høring om finansiell stabilitet 11:00 Tyskland ZEW, nåsituasjonen Januar Indeks 89,3 89,6 -- Tyskland ZEW, forventninger Januar Indeks 17,4 17,7 -- 16:00 Eurosonen Konsumenttillit Januar Indeks 0,5 0,6 -- 16:00 USA Richmond Fed ind.sent. Januar Indeks 20 18 -- 3
Research disclaimer Risk warning All investments involve risks and investors are encouraged to make their own decision as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to in this report, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. The historical return of a financial instrument is not a guarantee of future return. The value of financial instruments can rise or fall, and it is not certain that you will get back all the capital you have invested. Research disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ), is responsible for the preparation of research reports. SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, in Finland by the Financial Supervisory Authority and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information that SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accept any liability whatsoever for any loss, however it arises, from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. The views contained in SHB research reports are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts at this date and are subject to change. There can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. Each analyst identified in this research report also certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report. Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalised investment advice and such reports or opinions should not be the basis for making investment or strategic decisions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. The report does not cover any legal or tax-related aspects pertaining to any of the issuer s planned or existing debt issuances. Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. Analyst compensation is not based on specific corporate finance or debt capital markets services. No part of analysts compensation has been, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. From time to time, SHB and/or its affiliates may provide investment banking and other services, including corporate banking services and securities advice, to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. SHB may also seek corporate finance assignments with such companies. We buy and sell securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may also make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees may own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. The Bank has adopted Guidelines concerning Research which are intended to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank and to resolve any such conflicts by eliminating or mitigating them and/or making such disclosures as may be appropriate. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Information barriers ) on communications between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The Guidelines concerning Research also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines please see the Bank s website www.handelsbanken.com and click through to About the bank Sustainability at Handelsbanken Sustainability Policy documents and guidelines Policy documents Policy for
ethical standards in the Handelsbanken Group. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances. For full information on the Bank s Policy against corruption please see the Bank s website www.handelsbanken.com and click through to About the bank Sustainability at Handelsbanken Sustainability Policy documents and guidelines Policy documents Policy against corruption in the Handelsbanken Group. When distributed in the UK Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. UK customers should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business nor the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) for the protection of private customers apply to this research report and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). When distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(3). When distributed by HMSI, HMSI takes responsibility for the report. Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number (+1-212-326-5153).
Macro Research and Trading Strategy Macro Research and Trading Strategy Head of Macro Research and Trading Strategy & Chief Economist Ann Öberg +46 8 701 28 37 Lena Fahlen Deputy Head +46 8 701 83 29 Christina Nyman Head of Forecasting +46 8 701 51 58 Web Editor Eva Dorenius Chief Editor +46 8 701 50 54 Sweden Helena Bornevall Scenario Analysis and +46 8 701 18 59 Senior Economist Johan Löf Senior Economist, Sweden +46 8 701 5093 Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research +358 10 444 2404 Janne Ronkanen Senior Economist, Finland +358 10 444 2403 Debt Capital Markets Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research, Denmark and Netherlands +45 46 79 12 03 Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Senior Economist, Denmark and +45 46 79 16 19 Eurozone Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen Senior Economist, China and +45 46 79 12 29 Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research, Norway; UK +47 22 39 70 07 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Marius Gonsholt Hov Senior Economist, Norway +47 22 39 73 40 Halfdan Grangård Senior Economist, Norway +47 22 39 71 81 Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Chief Strategist +46 8 463 45 35 Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist +46 8 461 23 43 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Lars Henriksson Strategist FX +46 8 463 45 18 Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets +46 8 701 25 10 Per Eldestrand Head of Debt Capital Markets Sweden +46 8 701 22 03 Måns Niklasson Head of Corporate Loans and +46 8 701 52 84 Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds +46 8 463 45 79 Sales Fixed Income Sales Henrik Franzén +46 8 701 11 41 Corporate Sales Bo Fredriksson +46 8 701 345 31 FX Sales Håkan Larsson +46 8 701 345 19 Syndication Thomas Grandin +46 8 701 345 83 Regional sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen +45 46 79 12 69 Gothenburg Jaan Kivilo +46 31 774 83 39 Gävle Petter Holm +46 26 172 103 Helsinki Mika Rämänen +358 10 444 62 20 Linköping Fredrik Lundgren +46 13 28 91 10 London Tolga Kulahcigil +44 207 578 86 12 Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson +46 90 154 719 Luxembourg Snorre Tysland +352 274 868 251 Malmö Fredrik Lundgren +46 40 243 900 Oslo Petter Fjellheim +47 22 82 30 29 Stockholm Malin Nilén +46 8 701 27 70 Toll-free numbers From Sweden to 020-58 64 46 From Norway to 800 40 333 From Denmark to 8001 72 02 From Finland to 0800 91 11 00 Within the US 1-800 396-2758 Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE-106 70 Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel. +46 8 701 10 00 Tel. +45 46 79 12 00 Fax. +46 8 611 11 80 Fax. +45 46 79 15 52 Helsinki Itämerenkatu 11-13 FI-00180 Helsinki Tel. +358 10 444 11 Fax. +358 10 444 2578 Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel. +47 22 39 70 00 Fax. +47 22 39 71 60 London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel. +44 207 578 8668 Fax. +44 207 578 8090 New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY 10022-7218 Tel. +1 212 326 5153 Fax. +1 212 326 2730 FINRA, SIPC