Morgenrapport, tirsdag, 7. august 2012

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1 Morgenrapport, tirsdag, 7. august 2012 Fallet i spanske statsrenter fortsetter Nedturen i Italia ble trolig dypere i andre kvartal Vi venter et lite fall i norsk industriproduksjon i juni Internasjonalt Oppgangen i aksjemarkedene fortsatte i går, og statsrentene i Italia og Spania falt videre. Renten på spanske statspapirer med to års løpetid falt under 3,5 prosent, en nedgang på over tre prosentpoeng sammenlignet med dagene før sentralbanksjef Mario Draghi sa at Den europeiske sentralbanken (ESB) ville gjøre alt som var nødvendig for å redde euroen under en tale i London for to uker siden. Under pressekonferansen etter rentemøtet forrige uke sa Draghi at eventuelle nye obligasjonskjøp ville konsentreres om statspapirer med kortere løpetider. Tiårs spanske statsrenter ligger i skrivende stund på 6,82 prosent, altså fortsatt svært høyt, men lavere enn toppnivåene for to uker siden. Samtidig fortsetter ordskiftet mellom eurosones politikere i media. En talsperson for Tysklands forbundskansler Angela Merkel skal ha uttalt at Merkel støtter de planlagte tiltakene fra ESB. Dette er interessant gitt den sterke motstanden mot obligasjonskjøp i den tyske sentralbanken. Det kom få viktige nyheter i går. Stemningen blant investorene i eurosonen forverret seg som ventet ytterligere i august. Den såkalte Sentix-indeksen falt for femte måned på rad til det laveste nivået siden juli Den svake oppgangen i delindeksen som måler fremtidsutsiktene sees i sammenheng med signalene om obligasjonskjøp fra ESB. Vurderingen av nåsituasjonen falt imidlertid videre i august. I Hellas planlegger myndighetene å selge korte statspapirer for om lag 6 milliarder euro for å dekke et obligasjonsforfall til ESB på 3,2 milliarder euro 20. august. ESB økte i forrige uke taket på hvor mye korte statspapirer greske banker kunne stille som sikkerhet for kriselikviditet fra (Emergency Liquidity Assiastance, ELA) fra sentralbanken. Representantene for troikaen av långivere, EU, Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF) og ESB, forlot Hellas på søndag, men vil returnere i september og avgi rapport om fremdriften i innstrammingsprogrammet som vil avgjøre om Hellas vil få nye låneutbetalinger. Den greske staten er i ferd med å gå tom for penger etter at långiverne i juni holdt tilbake en låneutbetaling på 31,2 milliarder euro, og de nye budsjettkuttene på 11,5 milliarder euro vil bli svært krevende å gjennomføre. Ifølge Wall Street Journal legger IMF nå press på eurosones myndigheter for å ettergi en del av den greske gjelden. Faren for at Hellas etter hvert vil forlate eurosamarbeidet er på ingen måte over. Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall er de foreløpige BNP-tallene fra Italia i andre kvartal. Landet gikk inn i resesjon i tredje kvartal i fjor, og løpende statistikk konjunkturbarometre tyder på at nedturen ble enda dypere i andre kvartal. BNP ventes å ha falt med 0,6 prosent fra første til andre kvartal etter å ha falt med 0,8 prosent kvartalet før. IMF anslo i juli at verdiskapningen vil falle med 1,9 prosent i år og ytterligere 0,3 prosent neste år. Samtidig anslås den italienske statsgjelden å komme opp i 126 prosent av BNP ved utgangen av året. Omfattende innstrammingstiltak kan bidra til at budsjettunderskuddet faller til 2,6 prosent i år, og videre til 1,5 prosent neste år. Primærbalansen, altså budsjettbalansen før rentekostnader, er positiv. Den største utfordringen for Italia er å få fart på den økonomiske veksten. Lav produktivitetsvekst har ført til en betydelig svekkelse av den kostnadsmessige konkurranseevnen siden opprettelsen av eurosonen og bidratt til at driftsbalansen har gått fra pluss til minus. Statsminister Mario Montis teknokratregjering har iverksatt budsjettkutt og reformer blant annet av pensjonssystemet, men har møtt motstand i forsøkene på å gjøre arbeidsmarkedet mer fleksibelt, og regjeringens popularitet er dalende. Onsdag vil det holdes et tillitsvotum i nasjonalforsamlingen for å fremskynde godkjenningen av nye budsjettkutt. Vi venter også tall for ordreinngangen i tysk industri i juni. Innkjøpssjefsindeksen (PMI) for den tyske industrien har falt markert siden årsskiftet, og falt i juli til 43,0, det laveste nivået siden juni Bedriftene rapporterte i juli om fall i produksjonen for fjerde måned på rad og om kraftig fall i ordreinngangen fra eksportmarkedet. Så langt har vi ikke sett tegn til dette i de faktiske ordretallene. Det ventes at industriordrene falt med 1,0 prosent i juni, etter å ha steget med 0,6 prosent i mai. Endelig får vi også tall for britisk og italiensk industriproduksjon i juni. I begge landene peker PMI-indeksen mot fall i aktiviteten. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

2 Norge Kronen har styrket seg fra 7,394 til 7,378 mot euroen i løpet av natten, mens EUR/USD har ligget rundt 1,24- nivået. At euroen har vist styrke mot dollaren de siste to ukene peker i retning av større risikoappetitt, selv om bevegelsene ikke kan sies å ha vært altfor store. I dag venter vi et intervall på 7,35-7,40 i krysset EUR/NOK. Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall er statistikk for industriproduksjonen i juni. Produksjonen steg med 0,5 prosent i mai etter å ha steget med 1,1 prosent i april. Etter solid vekst to måneder på rad antar vi at veksten vil komme seg noe ned igjen i juni og anslår et fall 0,5 prosent. Kvartalsveksten i andre kvartal blir i så fall på 0,7 prosent, litt høyere enn i første kvartal, noe som er i tråd med Norges Banks regionale nettverk. Innkjøpssjefsindeksen (PMI) for industrien falt kraftig i juni, men har ikke vært en god indikator for utviklingen i industriproduksjonen fra måned til måned. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Ida Wolden Bache Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , knmo01@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, , kadu01@handelsbanken.no Ida Wolden Bache, , idba01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

3 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK EUR/USD USD/NOK USD/JPY SEK/NOK EUR/JPY Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK EUR/GBP ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK GBP/USD CHF/NOK EUR/CHF JPY/NOK EUR/SEK Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK EUR/DKK Foliorente SGD/NOK USD/KRW EUR/NOK CAD/NOK USD/RUB Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 10:30 Eurosonen Sentix-indeks August Indeks -29,6-31,0-30,1 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 10:00 Norge Industriproduksjon Juni Prosent m/m 0,5-0,3-0,5 10:00 Italia Industriproduksjon Juni Prosent m/m 0,8-1, :30 Storbritannia Industriproduksjon Juni Prosent m/m 1,2-4, :00 Italia BNP, foreløpig 2. kv. Prosent kv/kv -0,8-0, :00 Tyskland Industriordre Juni Prosent m/m 0,6-1, august

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