Ledighetsraten i Norge falt ifølge Arbeidskraftundersøkelsen overraskende fra 4,7 til 4,4 i desember

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1 onsdag, 22. februar 2017 Morgenrapport Macro Research PMI i Eurosonen overrasket positivt i februar; peker mot økt BNP-vekst i Q1 Ledighetsraten i Norge falt ifølge Arbeidskraftundersøkelsen overraskende fra 4,7 til 4,4 i desember Fed-referatet i kveld vil bli saumfart for indikasjoner om at en renteheving kan komme allerede i mars Internasjonalt I går hadde vi månedens store PMI-slipp. For Eurosonen var utviklingen positiv. Samlet PMI økte fra 54,4 til 56,0. Det var den største månedlige økningen siden juli 2013, og var klart bedre enn konsensusforventningene om et lite fall. Det var særlig tjenesteindeksen som dro opp samlet PMI i februar. I februar falt konsumenttilliten overraskende mye og sett på bakgrunn av dette, må en kunne si at den betydelige oppgangen i tjenestesentimentet var overraskende. Tjenestesentimentet i både Frankrike og Tyskland overrasket betraktelig på oppsiden. Det ser altså ikke ut til at franske bedrifter bekymrer seg nevneverdig for det forestående presidentvalget ennå. Også sentimentet i tysk tilvirkningsindustri overrasket positivt og selskapene rapporterte samlet det høyeste indeksnivået siden Faktisk industriproduksjon skuffet noe i Q4 for Tysklands del, men gårsdagens tall tyder på at 2017 har startet med økt optimisme. Samlet PMI for Eurosonen peker nå mot en kvartalsvekst i Q1 på 0,5-0,6 prosent; en oppgang fra 0,4 prosent de siste to kvartalene. PMI-målingen fra USA i februar skuffet derimot konsensus. Indeksene for både tilvirkningsindustri og tjenestesektoren falt tilbake etter tilnærmet kontinuerlig oppgang siden sensommeren i fjor. I USA tiltrekker PMI seg mindre oppmerksomhet enn ISMmålingene. De publiseres neste uke. I dag får vi IFO-undersøkelsen fra Tyskland. Det er en av de viktigste aktivitetsindikatorene for tysk økonomi. I februar venter konsensus et lite fall i alle tre indeksene; forretningsklimaet, forventningene og vurderingen av nåsituasjonen. I januar økte vurderingen av nåsituasjonen, mens forventningsindeksen falt klart. Samlet ga det et fall i samleindikatoren fra 111,0 til 109,8. I dag får vi se om dette var starten på en trendmessig nedgang, eller bare et tilfeldig utslag. Som nevnt, venter konsensus et fall, men endringen ventes ikke å bli stor. Mange ser for seg at den politiske usikkerheten vil stige frem mot de mange valgene i Europa i år, og at dette kan gi seg utslag i fallende sentiment i Eurosonen. Da vil vi kunne se videre fall i IFO og økonomisk aktivitet i Tyskland og Eurosonen samlet. Gårsdagens PMItall tyder imidlertid ikke på at bedriftene i Tyskland er i ferd med å bli bekymret ennå. Fra USA får vi i dag statistikken for boligsalg i januar. Konsensus venter en liten økning i antall solgte enheter. I desember hadde utbudet av boliger på markedet falt til det laveste nivået siden 2005, og tilsier at salget i januar holdes noe tilbake. På den andre siden økte antall kontraktsinngåelser i desember, og det vil nok gi seg utslag i statistikken for fullførte salg i januar. Det er normalt et dagers tidsetterslep fra kontraktsinngåelse til salget regnes som fullført. Fremover er det grunn til å tro at høyere utlånsrenter etter hvert vil gi seg utslag i avtagende boligsalg. Neste uke får vi statistikken for antall kontraktinngåelser i januar. Det blir interessant å se om det lave tilbudet av boliger og høyere utlånsrenter har gitt et fotavtrykk i disse tallene. Ellers får vi i kveld referatet fra Feds pengepolitiske møte 1. februar. Som nevnt i mandagsrapporten, tror vi at referatet kan gi detaljer om hvor klare FOMCmedlemmene egentlig er for å heve renten allerede nå i mars. Som kjent holdt Yellen døren åpen for en renteheving allerede i mars da hun i forrige uke holdt sin halvårlige redegjørelse for Kongressen. Imidlertid måtte hun neste gjøre dette i og med at medianestimatet til FOMC-medlemmene indikerer 3 hevinger i år, og da er mars i så fall første mulighet. Men Yellen var kanskje et snev mer haukeaktiv enn markedet ventet, og referatet kan muligens bidra til å belyse hvor ivrige resten av den pengepolitiske komiteen er på å gjøre noe allerede nå i mars gitt den betydelige politiske usikkerheten. Vår forventning er at det blir for tidlig for Fed å gjøre noe med renten i mars, nettopp fordi det foreløpig er veldig usikkert hva slags økonomisk politikk Trump-administrasjonen kommer til å føre. For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenrapport, 22. februar 2017 Norge På morgenkvisten fikk vi tall for AKU-ledigheten i desember (tremånedersperioden november-januar), som overraskende falt fra 4,7 prosent til 4,4. Både vi og konsensus hadde sett for oss at ledighetsraten forble uendret. Detaljene var imidlertid svake. Sysselsettingen falt med 2000 personer i desember, etter fall på personer i november. Det har vært negativ utvikling i sysselsettingen gjennom 2016; sammenligner vi med desember 2015, har sysselsettingen falt med personer. Den svake utvikling i sysselsettingen har vedvart helt siden utgangen av Ledigheten i desember var lav nok til at Norges Banks anslag for 2016 nå er litt for høyt. Det betyr at både Nav og AKU viser litt lavere ledighet enn sentralbanken har ventet. Det er imidlertid ikke noe automatikk i at Norges Bank nå vil vurdere produksjonsgapet som høyere enn ventet da utviklingen i AKU-ledigheten isolert skjuler stadig lavere yrkesdeltagelse og svak utvikling i sysselsettingen. Samlet tror vi at Norges Bank kan vurdere utviklingen i arbeidsmarkedet som marginalt bedre enn ventet, men da først og fremst med utgangspunkt i NAV-statistikken. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Halfdan Grangård Analytikere Kari Due-Andresen, , kadu01@handelsbanken.no Marius Gonsholt Hov, , maho60@handelsbanken.no Halfdan Grangård, , hagr11@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no 2

3 Morgenrapport, 22. februar 2017 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND EUR/NOK 8,8043 EUR/USD 1,0524 0,70 0,76 1,04 1,20 USD/NOK 8,3663 USD/JPY 113,5000 SEK/NOK 0,9310 EUR/JPY 119,4500 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1,1844 EUR/GBP 0, ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 10,4489 GBP/USD 1,2490 1,310 1,390 1,600 1,795 2,010 CHF/NOK 8,2754 EUR/CHF 1,0639 JPY/NOK 7,3739 EUR/SEK 9,4577 Vår prognose 1.kv kv kv.2017 AUD/NOK 6,4313 EUR/DKK 7,4333 Foliorente 0,50 0,50 0,50 SGD/NOK 5,8898 USD/KRW 1142,6000 EUR/NOK 9,00 8,90 8,90 CAD/NOK 6,3657 USD/RUB 57,4500 Kilde: Bloomberg Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk Frankrike PMI, samlet Februar Indeks 54,1 53,8 56, Tyskland PMI, samlet Februar Indeks 54,8 54,8 56, Eurosonen PMI, tilvirkningsindustri Februar Indeks 55,2 55,0 55,5 Eurosonen PMI, tjenester Februar Indeks 53,7 53,7 55,6 Eurosonen PMI, samlet Februar Indeks 54,4 54,3 56, USA PMI, tilvirkningsindustri Februar Indeks 55,0 55,4 54,3 USA PMI, tjenester Februar Indeks 55,6 55,8 53,9 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv Norge AKU-ledighet Desember Prosent 4,7 4,7 Faktisk: 4, Tyskland IFO, forretningsklima Februar Indeks 109,8 109,6 -- Tyskland IFO, forventninger Februar Indeks 103,2 103,0 -- Tyskland IFO, nåsituasjonen Februar Indeks 116,9 116, Storbritannia BNP, 2. utgivelse Q4 Prosent, kv/kv 0,6 0, Eurosonen Inflasjon, endelig Januar Prosent, år/år 1,8 1,8 -- Eurosonen Kjerneinflasjon, endelig Januar Prosent, år/år 0,9 0, USA Boligsalg Januar Millioner enheter 5,49 5, USA Referat fra Feds møte 1. februar 3

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