Et utfordrende marked. Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph.

Transkript

1 Et utfordrende marked Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph.

2 Oljeprisen lavere lenger Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year E E E

3 Et tilbakeblikk From bad to worse Before OPEC meeting Nov 2014 First Iran deadline 2015 At the bottom Jan 2015 September 2015 Source: Bloomberg 3

4 Drukner i Olje

5 USAs skiferproduksjon eksploderte i

6 Skiferproduksjonen er mer resistent mot lavere priser enn antatt kb/d Major US shale plays Total Oil production okt08 jul09 apr10 jan11 okt11 jul12 apr13 jan14 okt14 jul15 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara 6 Source: EIA

7 Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep OPEC Oversvømmer markedet med billig olje 32 31, , , , ,5 OPEC Supply Call-on-OPEC 2015 Quota OPEC Quota Call- on- OPEC 7 Source: IEA and Nordea Markets

8 jan.11 mai.11 sep.11 jan.12 mai.12 sep.12 jan.13 mai.13 sep.13 jan.14 mai.14 sep.14 jan.15 mai.15 sep.15 Thousand barrels per day Iran vil bli et viktig bidrag i US/EU sanctions on oil industry US sanctions on Iranian banks Sanctions on oil insurance and transport Framework Accord agreed Sanction removed + 700k b/d Joint Plan of Action Deadline 8

9 USD per barrel Tilbudsoverskuddet vil vare godt inn i ,0 96,0 94,0 92,0 90,0 88,0 86,0 84,0 82,0 Supply Demand 9

10 E&P Expenditure in MUSD Hva skjer hvis Midtøsten fortsetter å investere mens vi kutter? Europe America N Middle East Europe North America Middle East Source: Rystad Energy and Nordea Markets 10

11 Fra kartell til markedsandel en ny prisæra Cartel price USD 110/barrel 11

12 Hvor avhengige er vi av olje?

13 Et kraftig fall i oljeprisen er bra for verdensøkonomien 13

14 Største nedside risiko - en gjelds-/eiendomsboble som sprekker i Kina 14

15 Million barrels per day Transport er den siste bastionen - men overgangen til andre energiformer kan gå fort! Power generation 6.5% Buildings 9% Industry 5.5% Other 13% 60 Petrochemicals 12% Transport 54% Source: IEA

16 Klima og forurensingsproblemer krever endring Kina møter store helseproblemer og fallende levealder 16

17 Risiko for «Stranded assets» Klima på agendaen i 2015! 17 Source: DNV GL and Nordea Markets

18 Ekstraordinære endringer underveis i energisektoren : Here comes the sun Saudi Arabia, verdens største råoljeeksportør, kan fase ut fossilenergi innen midten av dette århundre sier Oljeminister, Ali al-naimi 18

19 Teknologiskiftet går fortere enn vi klarer å forestille oss Norge ledende på el-bil Bilbatteriteknologi: Kostandene allerede nede på 2020 nivå Kilde: Norsk Elbilforening (2014) og Nykvist og Nilsson,

20 Ny batteriteknologi kan endre energimarkedene radikalt Teslas Power Wall får konkurranse fra tyske Daimler og danske Lithium Balance 20

21 Utfordringer i kø fremover

22 Vi er neppe ferdig med nedturen

23 Hvilke felt er mest utsatt med dagens oljepris på USD 50/fatet? Kristin Åsgård Johan Castberg Goliat Wisting Gotha/Alta Njord Ormen Lange Snorre Late Life Liten risiko under USD 50/f Edvard Grieg Ekofisk King Lear Johan Sverdrup Middels risiko litt over USD 50/f Høy risiko over USD +50/f 23

24 Johan Sverdrup Johan Castberg Snorre Alta/Gohta Wisting King Lear Frigg Gamma/Delta Ekofisk West Gjoa Ormen Lange Linnorm Ekofisk West Grane Kristin Visund Hod Valhall Njord Skarv Edvard Grieg Tor Heidrun Kvitebjorn Aasgard EP Expenditure in MUSD Investeringer Johan Sverdrup er uten sammenligning det viktigste Source: Rystad Energy and Nordea Markets 24

25 Antall ansatte i offshore, leverandør, operatør indirekte sysselsatte 25 Kilde: IRIS 2014

26 Østfold: Flest i leverandør industrien og indirekte sysselsatte Kilde: IRIS

27 Oljeprisfallet rammer fastlandet

28 Oljenedturen har så langt preget Vestlandet 28

29 Sep13 28Jun14 16Apr15 02Feb16 20Nov16 08Sep17 NOK expected to regain some strength against EUR and EURNOK Forward Nordea Consensus but weaken further against USD, when FED starts to hike 29

30 against SEK within the next six months Sep13 05Jul14 23Apr15 09Feb16 27Nov16 15Sep17 SEKNOK Forward Nordea Consensus 30

31 Inflasjonen vil forbli lav

32 og Norges Bank kutter igjen Norges Banks styringsrente

33 Boligprisveksten - vil dra med seg forbruk og boligbygging Bankene kutter rentene 33

34 Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) Economic Research Nordea Markets Phone: Mobile:

35 Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets.