Investorene i norsk vindkraft

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1 Investorene i norsk vindkraft 6 Juni, 2017 Lars Ove Skorpen Tlf: lars.ove.skorpen@paretosec.com

2 A highly experienced and dedicated advisory team Advisory team Corporate finance Lars Ove Skorpen Yngve Walle Bjørn Erik Heiberg Background and experience Director of Power and Renewables, Corporate Finance. Joined Pareto in 1998 and is director of Power & Renewable Energy, with broad experience within various parts of the energy sector, including utilities and renewable energy. Involved in the majority of Pareto s energy and utilities deals since Previous experience from PWC and founder of Elfinans. Educational background includes a Siviløkonom (Master of Business and Economics) degree from the Norwegian School of Management (BI), a Certified Financial Analyst degree (AFA) from the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH), and MBA from the University of Wisconsin Madison Partner, Corporate Finance. Joined Pareto Securities in Prior to joining Pareto Securities, he spent 3 years with Arthur Andersen Business Consulting. He has extensive experience from various parts of the energy industry, including the utility sector and companies operating within renewable energy. Educational background includes a Siviløkonom (Master of Business and Economics) degree from the Norwegian School of Management (BI) and a Certified Financial Analyst degree (AFA) from the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH) Corporate Finance. M.Sc. NTNU within Industrial Economics and Technology Management. Previous experience from internships in Statoil and SEB Corporate Finance. In Statoil, he worked with procurement related to offshore wind. Has been with Pareto Securities since August 2014, and has worked primarily with Power and Renewable Energy, focusing on M&A. Roles Core team Day to day involvement Network Documentation and execution Process and strategy Knowledge and experience Valuation Research Fredrik Steinslien Jon Gjertsen Stian Abrahamsen Renewable analyst Diversified consumer and industrial analyst Renewable analyst, credit Industry knowledge Source: Pareto Securities 2

3 Recent Pareto transactions Nordic Infrastructure & Renewable Private & confidential Selected Infrastructure & Renewable Transactions Nordic Power Acquisition of 100% of Småkraft AS Undisclosed Financial Advisor to Aquila Capital Acquisition of 100 % of Norsk Grønnkraft AS Undisclosed Financial advisor to Aquila Capital Acquisition of 100 % of Nordic Power from Nordkraft AS Undisclosed Financial advisor to SL Capital Partners Acquisition of Eramet S.A. s stake in Tinfos AS, including acquisition of minorities Undisclosed Financial advisor to Aquila Capital Bond buy-back EUR 40m Sole Manager Acquisition of 48.2% of the shares in Kvænangen Kraftverk AS NOK 370m Financial advisor to Ymber Financial advisory n/a Financial Advisor to SEB Sale of Sarpsborg Avfallsenergi to Whitehelm Capital NOK 280m Financial Advisor to Hafslund Advisory on amendment of terms of bond loans Undisclosed Sole Financial Advisor Financial Advisory n/a Financial advisor to the City of Oslo Sale of company to Sampension EUR 188m Financial Advisor Sale of 100% of the shares in Bjerkreim Vind Undisclosed Financial Advisor to Agder Energi, Lyse and Dalane energi Advisor to Statnett on bundle fiber with HVDC cable to UK and Germany n/a Financial Advisor to Statnett Sale of fiber company to Kyst Tele Holding Undisclosed Financial Advisor to SKS, Helgelandkraft and Hålogaland Kraft Sale of 51% of the company to Telemark Group AS Undisclosed Financial Advisor to Skagerak EnergiAS Sale of 100% of EB Elektro Undisclosed Financial Advisor to Nettpartner 3

4 Pareto advised the City of Oslo in the acquisition, delisting and demerger of Hafslund ASA Deal summary Transaction elements Private & confidential April 2017 Acquisition, delisting and demerger Parties: The City of Oslo ( OK ) and Fortum Oyj Main companies / targets: Hafslund ASA Listed on Oslo Stock Exchange Ownership: OK 54%, Fortum 34%, Others 12% Klemetsrudanlegget AS ( KEA ) 100% owned by OK Transaction type: Acquisition/take-private and subsequent sale of assets Sector: Power and Renewable Energy Process duration: 12 months + Closing: Expected Q Transaction value: NOK 47,7bn Process type: Bilateral negotiation Pareto s role: Sole financial advisor to OK Structure overview Pre transaction structure OK Fortum Others 34% 12% 100% 100% 54% E-Co KEA Hafslund Production Distribution Heat Markets Deal #1: Acquisition, delisting and demerger OK, through Bidco, acquires Fortum s shares in Hafslund at NOK/share, offers to acquire the remaining outstanding shares in Hafslund, and delists the company. All segments except Production is transferred to New Hafslund Deal #2: Hafslund Production OK, through Bidco, sells 10% of Production to Fortum and 90% to E-Co Energi AS (100% owned by OK). Total EV of NOK 7.75bn Deal #3: Hafslund Markets OK, through New Hafslund, sells 100% of Markets to Fortum. Total EV of NOK 4.5bn Deal #4: Hafslund Heat and KEA Heat will purchase 100% of KEA from OK. EV for KEA 2.3bn. OK, through New Hafslund, sells 50% of Heat and KEA to Fortum. Total EV for Heat+KEA of NOK 7bn Post transaction structure OK Fortum 100% 100% 50% 50% 100% E-Co Distribution KEA + Heat Markets 90% Production 10% Deal statistics NOK 47,7bn Segment EV Key metric EV / metric Acquisition of Hafslund Production Markets Heat KEA NOK 28.5bn NOK 7.75bn NOK 4.5bn NOK 4.7bn NOK 2.3bn EBITDA NOK 3 143m Production 3.1 TWh Customers EBITDA 2016 NOK 437m EBITDA 2016 NOK 153m EV/EBITDA 9.1 EV/Production 2.5 NOK/kWh EV/Customer EV/EBITDA 10.8x EV/EBITDA 15.0x 4

5 Overskrift på NVEs Vindkonferanse 2. juni 2014 Private & confidential 5

6 ..da så situasjonen slik ut Private & confidential 6

7 ..I tillegg til at nye prosjekter ble skjøvet ut i tid Private & confidential ** ** Gammel eierkonstellasjon 7

8 Med en slik prisutvikling hvem hadde da trodd på følgende Private & confidential 8

9 .deals med utenlandske investorer Hamnefjellet Rasskiftet Ånstadblåheia og Sørfjord Midtfjellet Bjerkreim&Eigersund Fosen Telleneset 9

10 Hvorfor ikke flere norske investorer i vind Private & confidential Svak lønnsomhet Andre CAPEX investeringer går foran (vann og nett) Sultne eiere som forlanger sitt i form av utbytte En teknologi de ikke behersker like godt som vannkraft 10

11 Private & confidential Vind case Krevende lønnsomhet (i) Hovedantagelser benyttet Antall turbiner 40 Turbinstørrelse 3,5 MW Installert effekt 140 MW Brukstid timer Produksjon 491 GWh Levetid 25 år (fra 2020) CAPEX NOK 1 350m (2,7 NOK/kWh) OPEX Stigende fra 9 til 16 øre/kwh Skatt 23 % Inflasjon NOK 2,5 % EUR 2,0 % Kraftpriser øverst og el-cert nederst EUR/MWh e 2020e 2022e 2024e 2026e 2028e 2030e 2032e 2034e Nasdaq forward Nasdaq forward + inflation EUR/MWh e 2020e 2022e 2024e 2026e 2028e 2030e 2032e 2034e Market forward Market forward + infl. 11

12 Vind case Krevende lønnsomhet (ii) Private & confidential Illustrativ prosjektkontantstrøm med 6 % WACC Verdisensitivitet på WACC (6 8 %) Estimert kontantstrøm (NOKm) NOKm Netto kontantstrøm Akkumulert diskontert kontantstrøm Negativ verdi 8,0 % Negativ verdi 7,5 % Negativ verdi 7,0 % 10 6,5 % 6,0 % Nåverdi med 6 % WACC NOK 65m Prosjekt IRR 6,6 % Med dagens forwardpriser på kraft og el-cert er det krevende å oppnå tilstrekkelig lønnsomhet i vindkraftprosjekter Krever lavt avkastningskrav og/eller positivt syn på kraftprisutvikling fremover 12

13 Private & confidential PPA/EPA og gearing - de største utfordringene for vindinvestorene PPA / EPA Bare en håndfull aktører Selger vil typisk ønske å selge kraften når det produseres, for kjøper gir det usikker timing og usikkert volum Prising vil også være avhengig av durasjon, volum og prisområde Kjøper vil typisk ønske å sikre år Gjeld Bankene vil typisk ønske å se sikring like lang eller lengre enn lånet Liker i utgangspunktet ikke ElCert risikoen da noen har worst case scanarie på denne nær 0 Norske banker liker typisk lån 5-10 år, liker mindre 10 år og lengre Gearing typisk i området +/- 50 % Med ElCert priser i område 60 SEK/MWh så kan man lure på om det er noe poeng å sikre disse inntektene i det hele tatt Normalt inngåelse av PPA/EPA ved financial close Vanskelig å få gratis opsjoner fra PPA motparter 13

14 Eksempler på vind investorer i Norge Private & confidential Prosjekt utviklere Kjøpere av prosjekter/ turn key Industrielle aktører 14

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17 Svært mange investorer i Sverige tok investeringsbeslutning da prisene lå over 60/MWh disse sliter nå EUR/MWh Historiske priser Power+ElCert Forward Power+ElCert 80 78,5 79, ,8 44,7 64,8 29,8 35,0 26,7 53,1 67,7 20,7 47,1 50,4 19,2 31,2 60,9 22,8 38,1 49,2 19,6 29,6 37,2 16,2 21,0 41,5 34,7 14,6 7,5 26,9 27,1 30,9 7,7 23,2 28,8 28,7 30,3 7,7 7,6 7,1 21,0 21,1 23,2 Total pris El-cert Power pris E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 17

18 Contact details and disclaimer Oslo (Norway) Pareto Securities AS Dronning Mauds gate 3 PO Box 1411 Vika N-0115 Oslo NORWAY Stavanger (Norway) Pareto Securities AS Haakon VIIs gate 8 PO Box 163 N-4001 Stavanger NORWAY Trondheim (Norway) Pareto Securities AS Nordre gate 11 PO Box 971 Sentrum N-7410 Trondheim NORWAY Stockholm (Sweden) Pareto Securities AB Berzelii Park 9 PO Box 7415 S Stockholm SWEDEN Malmö (Sweden) Pareto Securities AB Stortorget 13 S Malmö SWEDEN Copenhagen (Denmark) Pareto Securities AS Sankt Annæ Plads Copenhagen K DENMARK Helsinki (Finland) Pareto Securities Oy Aleksanterinkatu 44 6 th floor FI Helsinki FINLAND London (UK) Pareto Securities Ltd 8 Angel Court London EC2R 7HJ UNITED KINGDOM Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Aberdeen (UK) Pareto Securities Ltd 46 Carden Place Aberdeen, AB10 1UP UNITED KINGDOM Paris (France) Pareto Securities AS Paris Branch 11 BD Jean Mermoz Neuilly Sur Seine FRANCE New York (US) Pareto Securities Inc 150 East 52 nd Street 29 th floor New York NY USA Houston (US) Pareto Securities Inc 8 Greenway Plaza Suite 818 Houston, TX USA Singapore Pareto Securities Pte Ltd 16 Collyer Quay #27-02 Income at Raffles Singapore SINGAPORE Perth (Australia) Pareto Securities Pty Ltd Level St Georges Tce Perth, Western Australia AUSTRALIA, 6000 Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Bloomberg: PASE (go) Reuters: PARETO Disclaimer These materials have been prepared by Pareto Securities AS and/or its affiliates (together Pareto ) exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the client named on the cover in order to indicate, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of one or more potential transactions. The materials may not be used for any other purpose and may not be copied or disclosed, in whole or in part, to any third party without the prior written consent of Pareto. The materials contain information which has been sourced from third parties, without independent verification. The information reflects prevailing conditions and Pareto s views as of the date of hereof, and may be subject to corrections and change at any time without notice. Pareto does not intend to, and the delivery of these materials shall not create any implication that Pareto assumes any obligation to, update or correct the materials. Pareto, its directors and employees or clients may have or have had positions in securities or other financial instruments referred to herein, and may at any time make purchases/sales of such securities or other financial instruments without notice. Pareto may have or have had or assume relationship(s) with or engagement(s) for or related to the relevant companies or matters referred to herein. The materials are not intended to be and should not replace or be construed as legal, tax, accounting or investment advice or a recommendation. No investment, divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely on the material, and no representations or warranties are made as to the accuracy, correctness, reliability or completeness of the material or its contents. Neither Pareto, nor any of its affiliates, directors and employees accept any liability relating to or resulting from the reliance upon or the use of all or parts of the materials. 18