Forvaltning av langsiktige plasseringer

Transkript

1 Forvaltning av langsiktige plasseringer Hov, 10. mai 2017 Harald Taarud DNB Markets Tlf

2 Agenda Kort om DNB Markets Gjeldende strategi og dagens portefølje Resultater Forslag til justeringer av strategi 2

3 DNB Markets Norges største meglerhus Søndre Land kommune Renter/valuta/råvarer Obligasjoner - + Eiendom og fond Aksjer Analyser Rådgivning 3

4 Aktivaklasser (hovedtyper av investeringsalternativer) Langsiktig avkastning 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Risiko (std.avvik) To veier til avkastning: aksjeandel og kredittrisiko

5 Avkastning på lang sikt 5

6 På lang sikt går aksjer oppover, til tross for mye «støy» Søndre Land kommune

7 Gjeldende strategi og dagens portefølje

8 Strukturert prosess mot en forvaltningsstrategi 1. Kundeavklaringer 2. Strategi 3. Forvaltning 4. Løpende evaluering Rammebetingelser Skatteposisjon Tidshorisont Risikovilje Krav til likviditet "Passiv"/aktiv Fastlegging av mål og hovedprinsipper Simuleringer Strategisk allokering /referanse -> Aksjeandel Mandat/strategi Vurdering av konkrete case/ alternativer Taktisk allokering avh. av markedssyn Lage portefølje Oppfølging Rapportering Løpende evaluering av resultatene (benchmarking) Mandat "Leveranse" 8

9 Dagens portefølje og gjeldende strategi 9

10 Forventet avkastning i 2017 er ca. 2,5% basert på rentenivå og «normalavkastning» for aksjer Søndre Land kommune 10

11 Renteportefølje gj.sn. rente 1,8% Søndre Land kommune Fond: 68m 11

12 DNB Scandinavian Property Fund 6,4 mill. kr Søndre Land kommune Fondet investerer i næringseiendom, uten belåning Uten verdiendringer er forventet avkastning ca. 5% (netto leieinntekter forv.kostnad for fondet) 12

13 Aksjefond: til sammen 52 mill. kr Søndre Land kommune DNB Global Valutasikret DNB Norden III **** Skagen Global / Kon Tiki 13 mill. kr 5 mill. kr 6,5 mill. kr DNB Norge III *** DNB SMB (Norge) DNB Teknologi ***** 15 mill. kr 5 mill. kr 4,2 mill. kr

14 Risikovekt mai 2017 Nøytralvekt i aksjer Søndre Land kommune 14

15 Resultater

16 Hovedtall med benchmarking pr Resultat = Sluttverdi (UB) - Startverdi (IB) - Netto inn-/utbetalinger Avkastning i % = Resultat / gj.sn. investert beløp (pengevektet avkastning) 16

17 Akkumulert resultat 108 mill. kr / 4,05% p.a. 17

18 Forslag til endring av strategi

19 Obligasjoner - Avkastningspotensiale High yield Investment grade S&P CCC Spread Seadrill, FOE, Havila, REM, REC, Norske Skog B- 7,5 AINMT (ice.net), Teekay OP, DOF Sub B 6,5 Norwegian Air Shuttle, Odfjell, BW Offshore B+ 6 Norsk Gjenvinning, Kistefos, Solstad BB- 4-5 Color Gr, Ship F., Höegh LNG, Ocean Yield, Scatec, Bonheur BB 4,25 Stolt-Nielsen, Teekay LNG BB+ 3-4 Austevoll, Marine H., Aker ASA, Aker BP, Stena Metall, WW BBB- 1,4 Nortura, Schibsted, Veidekke, Storebrand BBB 1,2 Yara, Norsk Hydro, Tele2 AB, Obos BBL BBB+ 1,0 Olav Thon Eiendom, Tine, Steen & Strøm, Hafslund, Eidsiva A- 0,9 Posten Norge, Orkla, Entra Eiendom, Statkraft, Stb Liv A 0,9 BKK, Gjensidige, Telenor A+ 0,8 DNB Bank, Statoil, Statnett SF, NRK AA (+/-) 0,7 Fjellinjen, NSB, Avinor AAA Den norske stat, Kommunalbanken, Oslo kommune, DNB Boligkreditt Oppdatert

20 Gjeldende finansstrategi og forslag til endring Ordlyd ( Direkte eie av rentebærende papirer): - Inntil 15% av totalkapital kan investeres i obligasjoner med kredittrating B+ eller bedre - Enkeltplassering i obligasjoner med lavere rating enn BBB- kan maksimalt utgjøre 2% av kommunens langsiktige finansielle aktiva 20

21 Eksempel på high yield obligasjonsportefølje Effektiv rente p.t. 5,6% 21

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