SAMRISK. Principles, methods and models for determining the right level of investments in societal safety and security

Transkript

1 SAMRISK Principles, methods and models for determining the right level of investments in societal safety and security University of Stavanger/IRIS Professor Terje Aven Principle objectives To develop principles, methods and models for determining the right investments in societal safety and security, taking into account different and potentially conflicting objectives in the decision process

2 Key researchers Professor Terje Aven, University of Stavanger Professor Michael Jones-Lee, University of Newcastle, UK and University of Stavanger (adjunct professor) Professor Ortwin Renn, University of Stuttgart, Germany and University of Stavanger (adjunct professor) Ass. professor Seth Guikema, John Hopkins University, USA and University of Stavanger (adjunct professor) Ass. prof Eirik B. Abrahamsen, University of Stavanger Professor Frank Asche, University of Stavanger Professor Jan Erik Vinnem, University of Stavanger 1 Ph.D (finansiert utenom prosjektet) Riana Steen. Flere andre PhD-er har også deltatt og deltar med enkeltarbeider.

3 Publications Books Aven (2010) Misconceptions of Risk. Wiley. Aven, T. and O. Renn (2010) Risk management and Risk Governance. Concepts,Guidelines and Applications. Springer Verlag. Aven, T. (2011) Risk assessment. The scientific platform. Cambridge University Press.

4 Aven (2010) Misconceptions of Risk. Wiley. Risk is equal to the expected value Risk is a probability or a probability distribution Risk is the same as risk perception Risk is determined by the historical data Risk assessments produce an objective risk picture There are large inherent uncertainties in risk analyses The main objective of risk management is risk reduction Decision-making under uncertainty should be science (analysis)-based The precautionary principle and risk management cannot be meaningfully integrated Conclusions

5 Journal papers (* level 2) 1. Abrahamsen, E. B. and Aven, T. (2008) On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 93, * 2. Aven, T. and Renn, O. (2009) On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain. J. Risk Research, 12, Aven, T. and Renn, O. (2009) The role of quantitative risk assessments for characterizing risk and uncertainty and delineating appropriate risk management options, with special emphasis on terrorism risk. Risk Analysis. 29, * 4. Aven, T. (2009) Perspectives on risk in a decision-making context Review and discussion. Safety Science. 47, * 5. Aven, T. (2009) Safety is the antonym of risk for some perspectives of risk. Safety science. 47, * 6. Aven, T. (2009) Risk analysis and risk management. Basic concepts and principles Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications, 2, Aven, T. (2009) Identification of safety and security critical systems and activities. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 94, * 8. Aven, T. (2009) Trends in risk analysis. International Journal of Performability Engineering. 5, Flage, R. and Aven, T. (2009) Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA) Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications. 2(13), Aven, T. and Heide, B. (2009) Reliability and validity of risk analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 94, * 11. Jones-Lee, M. and Aven, T. (2009) The Role of Social Cost-Benefit Analysis in Societal Decision- Making Under Large Uncertainties with Application to Robbery at a Cash Depot. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 94, * 12. Aven, T. (2009) A new scientific framework for quantitative risk assessments. International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management IJBCRM. 13. Aven, T. (2010) On the need for restricting the probabilistic analysis in risk assessments to variability. Risk analysis. To appear. * 14. Aven, T. (2010) Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. To appear. *

6 Journal papers (in the process and submitted) In the process (Revised and resubmitted) Guikema, S. and Aven, T. (2009) Assessing Risk from Intelligent Attacks: A Perspective on approaches Aven, T. (2009) Uncertainty should replace probability in the definition of risk Aven, T. (2009) Business loves risk assessments Vinnem, J.E. (2008) Risk analysis planning processes of hazardous facilities a case of an LNG plant in an urban area. Submitted Abrahamsen, E. and Asche F. The insurance market s influence on investments in safety measures Aven, T. and Steen, R. (2008) The concept of ignorance under different risk perspectives Aven, T. (2009) An integrated framework for decision support on risk and uncertainty Aven, T. (2009) On different types of uncertainties in the context of the precautionary principle Nygaard, L.F. and Aven, T. (2009) On the link between risk perspectives and risk regulation - a comparison between two cases concerning base stations and wireless networks. Aven, T. (2009) A holistic framework for conceptualising and describing risk Aven, T. and Steen, R. (2009) On the boundaries of probabilistic risk assessment in the face of uncertainties, a case of piracy and armed robberies against ships in the Gulf of Aden.

7 Other publications Chapters in books Aven, T. (2009) Risk management Theden book. In Grimvall, G.; Holmgren, Å.; Jacobsson, P.; Thedéen, T. (Eds.) Risks in Technological Systems. Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, ISBN: Aven, T. (2009) Risk assessments and black swans. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science Editorial Office Aven, T. (2010) Economists perspectives on risk: towards a unifying approach. In Rethinking Risk Measurement, Management and Reporting: Bayesian Analysis and Expert Elicitation. Risk Books, London. Other papers presented at international conferences and in proceedings (with reviewers) Steen, R. and Aven, T. (2008) Comparisons and discussion of different integrated risk perspectives. ESREL Steen, R. and Aven, T., (2009) An integration of the willingness to pay and the precautionary principles: A case of use of wireless technology in Norwegian schools. ESREL Ale, B. Aven, T. and Jongejan, R. (2009) Review and discussion of basic concepts and principles in integrated risk management. ESREL Abrahamsen, E.B., Aven, T. an Iversen, R.S. (2009) Integrated framework for safety management and uncertainty management in petroleum operations. SSARS 09 Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Terje Aven, Willy Røed (2009) A new visualizing tool for communicating cost-effectiveness of safety measures. SSARS 2009 Kronikker m.m. Aven, T. (2009) Kronikk Stavanger Aftenblad, 7/5-09, Hvor god beredskap bør vi ha? Aven, T. (2009) Kronikk Stavanger Aftenblad, 20/9-09. Terrorfaren er fiktiv. Aven, T. (2009) Intervju Den kalde risikoberegnings kunst. Univers 3, UiS Aven, T. Intervju i ukeavisen ledelse om risikostyring. Aven, T. (2008) Uflaks, Stavanger Aftenblad, 10/4-08. Aven, T. (2008) På eget ansvar. Menneskets oppfatning av risiko er svært forskjellig. Pluss Stavanger Aftenblad 22/8-08.

8 Hva handler forskningen om? Grunnleggende om hva risiko er og hvordan risiko bør beskrives Implikasjonene dette har i forhold til risikoanalysene og bruken av disse i en beslutningssammenheng Implikasjonene dette har i forhold til spørsmål knyttet til risikoaksept og risikostyring generelt, og spesielt i forhold til hva som er et riktig investeringsnivå når det gjelder sikkerhet (safety/security).

9 Kåseri Kronikk 20/9-09 Terrorfaren er fiktiv Er det større risiko for å drukne i do enn for å bli rammet av terror? Ja, mener noen forståsegpåere. Faren/risikoen er mikroskopisk den er fiktiv den er ikke noe å være redd for. Sikkerhetstiltakene har ingen effekt risikoen er jo så lav likevel Kampen mot terror er tidens store folkeforførelse.

10 Hva er risiko? Risiko: (A,C,U) Risikobeskrivelse (A,C,U,P,K) A: hendelse, for eksempel terrorangrep C: konsekvenser U: usikkerhet P: sannsynlighet K: bakgrunnskunnskap Activity Values at stake Uncertainty Events and consequences (outcomes) Severity Values at stake Risk

11 Risiko U Risikoanalyse P

12 LNG plant Risavika

13 Future research To områder som spesielt vil adresseres er ii) metoder for å beskrive risiko og usikkerhet og i) forståelse og implementering av ALARP prinsippet.

14 Workshop LA January 2010 On the Assessment and Communication of Risk and Uncertainties in a Practical Decision Making Context: Beyond Traditional Frameworks Objectives Bring together some of the world leading researchers in the field of analysis and management of risks of complex systems and processes with the aim of discussing how uncertainties should be assessed and treated beyond the methods used in traditional quantitative probabilistic risk assessments in a practical decision-making context.