Balansering av Demand og Supply i verdikjeden: Et studie i dagligvarebransjen

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1 Balansering av Demand og Supply i verdikjeden: Et studie i dagligvarebransjen Heidi Dreyer, NTNU PERSSON Seminar 2016 Supply Chain Management med fokus på Lagerstyring Handelshøyskolen BI, 3. mars 2016

2 Dagens tekst Demand and supply management to case som underbygger betydningen av lagerstyring I dagligvarehandelen Case 1: Dagligvarehandelens planleggings- og styringsmodell as we speak Case 2: Intet nytt under solen : Informasjonsdeling I verdikjeden har verdi 2

3 BAKGRUNN The Retail Supply Chain 3

4 250 BAKGRUNN Planning environment (PE) ex.; demand variability Example: Potato 2 kg Beate Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Discount stores: Declining sales towards mid-week. Increasing sales toward weekend. Full range stores: Increasing sales weekend 4

5 Lav Sving i salg i løbet af en uge Høj BAKGRUNN PE ex.; consumer demand pattern calls for differentiated 0,6 control principles 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0, ,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 Lav Sving i salg uge for uge Høj

6 2/1/2015 Fri 4/1/2015 Sun 6/1/2015 Tue 8/1/2015 Thu 10/1/2015 Sat 12/1/2015 Mon 14/1/2015 Wed 16/1/2015 Fri 18/1/2015 Sun 20/1/2015 Tue 22/1/2015 Thu 24/1/2015 Sat 26/1/2015 Mon 28/1/2015 Wed 30/1/2015 Fri 1/2/2015 Sun 3/2/2015 Tue 5/2/2015 Thu 7/2/2015 Sat 9/2/2015 Mon 11/2/2015 Wed 13/2/2015 Fri 15/2/2015 Sun 17/2/2015 Tue 19/2/2015 Thu 21/2/2015 Sat 23/2/2015 Mon 25/2/2015 Wed 27/2/2015 Fri 1/3/2015 Sun 3/3/2015 Tue 5/3/2015 Thu 7/3/2015 Sat 9/3/2015 Mon 11/3/2015 Wed 13/3/2015 Fri 15/3/2015 Sun 17/3/2015 Tue 19/3/2015 Thu 21/3/2015 Sat 23/3/2015 Mon 25/3/2015 Wed 2/1/2015 Fri 4/1/2015 Sun 6/1/2015 Tue 8/1/2015 Thu 10/1/2015 Sat 12/1/2015 Mon 14/1/2015 Wed 16/1/2015 Fri 18/1/2015 Sun 20/1/2015 Tue 22/1/2015 Thu 24/1/2015 Sat 26/1/2015 Mon 28/1/2015 Wed 30/1/2015 Fri 1/2/2015 Sun 3/2/2015 Tue 5/2/2015 Thu 7/2/2015 Sat 9/2/2015 Mon 11/2/2015 Wed 13/2/2015 Fri 15/2/2015 Sun 17/2/2015 Tue 19/2/2015 Thu 21/2/2015 Sat 23/2/2015 Mon 25/2/2015 Wed 27/2/2015 Fri 1/3/2015 Sun 3/3/2015 Tue 5/3/2015 Thu 7/3/2015 Sat 9/3/2015 Mon 11/3/2015 Wed 13/3/2015 Fri 15/3/2015 Sun 17/3/2015 Tue 19/3/2015 Thu 21/3/2015 Sat 23/3/2015 Mon 25/3/2015 Wed PE ex.; typical bullwhip effect BAKGRUNN STABB. LEVERPOSTEI 200G Lav Bullwhip POS tostores towarehouse HVETEMEL 2KG Høy Bullwhip POS tostores towarehouse

7 Food waste ratio BAKGRUNN PE ex.; delivery frequency vs. food waste 10,0 % 9,0 % 9,2 % 8,0 % 7,8 % 7,0 % 6,0 % 5,4 % 5,4 % 5,0 % 4,0 % 3,9 % 4,4 % 4,7 % 3,9 % 4,2 % 3,8 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,7 % 2,1 % 2,3 % 1,9 % 1,0 % 0,0 % ,5 % Meat Convenience food Dairy Fruits Vegetables Low delivery frequency Medium delivery frequency High delivery frequency 7

8 BAKGRUNN 8

9 CASE 1 En modell for integrert taktisk planlegging - Sales and Operations planning (S&OP) Strategic planning Marketing planning Sales and operations planning (Volume) Financial planning Resource planning Sales plan Operations plan Demand management Rough-cut capacity planning Master production scheduling (Mix) (Vollmann et al. 2005) 9

10 CASE 1 En planleggingsmodell for varehandelen Hübner et al

11 CASE 1 The tactical planning process in the case company 11

12 CASE 1 Findings The tactical planning process begins in the Retail Chain function. The following steps is followed: 1. Decisions about the chain concept profile and the product category per chain aggregated level 12 months horizon 2. Disaggregation into sales and promotion plan on a product group level - master category plan 4 months horizon 3. Procurement and assortment decisions; decisions about suppliers, products and planograms 4. Supplier contracts; price, discounts, volumes, etc. for one year. Planogram decides where (shelf) and how much (volume) 5. Inbound logistics decides the inventory structure and the logistical product groups 6. Warehouse; inventory policy, collection from suppliers (when, how much) 7. Deliveries to stores (frequency, etc.) and individual routes to store 12

13 CASE 1 Reflections (I) Content and sequences of the tactical planning Process oriented and functional planning structure. Top-down oriented; aggregated decisions set the premises for lower level planning two layers at the tactical level; store concept and product category and product family/individual Demand management drives the start of the process and set the main premises. Then supply management follows with logistics as the responsible for inbound, outbound, transportation etc. The planning structure makes it less dynamic to the actual demand situation but makes it less sensitive to disturbances 13

14 CASE 1 Reflection (II) The Interplay between the planning functions The order of the planning; the retail chain, then procurement and assortment logistics fulfil the plan and optimize on cost and service level Separate objectives for each functional plan no coordination or joint objectives Fragmented and not formally coupled processes 14

15 CASE 2 Informasjonsdeling i dagligvarekjeden Hvor deles hvilken informasjon, nivå og bruksområde? Hva er verdien? POS data, lagerbeholdning, prognoser, kampanjer, holdbarhet, etc. 15

16 CASE 2 What is the relation between information sharing and food waste Better balance between supply and demand => lower food waste Farmer Processor Wholesaler Distribution Retailer 16

17 CASE 2 A multiple case study Sharing Utilization Performance Information Sharing Automatic Replenishment Program Food Waste Remaining Shelf Life Selection of method Proprietary and in-depth information Theoretical (contrasting) and literal (similar) replications 17

18 CASE 2 Case Description Manual Ordering Last week s sales Promotions Observed inventory Batch size Experience ARP Ordering Forecasted demand until next delivery (POS) 130 Minimum inventory 20 Current inventory level at store 110 Expected deliveries 0 Requirement 40 Batch size 80 Order proposal, in batches 1 18

19 CASE 2 Empirical data Selection Criteria Case Company: Partial implantation of ARP Stores: Size, Distance to warehouse, and Delivery Frequency (21) Products: Minimum five stores with and five stores without ARP (63 => 9) minimum: 5 x 63 = 315 recordings for each; 630 in total actual: 1087 in total 9m 14d 01/01/15 09/30/15 Food waste and Sales 08/10/15 08/24/15 Inventory levels (remaining shelf-life) Few products 19

20 Average food waste Ratio CASE 2 Impact on food waste 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Cheese, dessert Butter Cheese, Cheese, cooking whole & sliced Mayo Cakes Fish Products Bread Eggs 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Avg. 1.42% reduction. 366 MEUR in profit => additional 5.6 MEUR The benefit is independent on the food waste level Need for considering more factors (CoV, substitution, etc.) Ratio ARP Manual 20

21 Weigthed average remaing shelf life [days] CASE 2 Impact on remaining shelf life Observation Day Avg. 6% increase in remaining shelf-life Increases likelihood of less food waste Less fluctuation for ARP compared to manual Service level = 100% ARP - Butter Manual - Butter ARP - Cheese, cooking Manual - Cheese, cooking 21

22 CASE 2 What did we learn? #1 The findings suggests that information sharing is beneficial for retail stores #2 The value of information do not appear to be dependent on the waste level #3 Differences among product groups -> tailoring L Data: Limited period; One retail chain; Limited data on service level L Only one type of utilization (ARP) 22

23 Konklusjon Vi har pekt på betydning av lagerstyring i dagligvarehandelen Økning i variantbredde, etterspørselsvariasjoner, multikanal, ferske matvarer kompleksitet og usikkerhet Lagernivå som strategi er en trade-off mellom servicegrad, kostnader og matsvinn Planlegging og styring er en hierarkisk prosess hvor Kjede og kategori og innkjøp og sortiment beslutter sentrale premisser for logistikk og butikkdrift på lang sikt Stabiliserer planleggingen og fastsetter funksjonelle mål MEN fører til en reduserte evne til å respondere på etterspørsel Vi foreslår, dersom en ønsker større responsevne; Opprette integrasjon mellom logistikk/operations og kategori og sortimentsplanlegging Opprette en formell integrert planleggingsprosess S&OP Informasjonsdeling har verdi/betydning Reduksjon av matsvinn Bedre utnyttelse av produktets holdbarhet 23