Udviklingen på energimarkederne

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1 Udviklingen på energimarkederne Lennart Persson Area Manager Bergen Energi ApS 1

2 Our Business Service i hele Europa MiFID License Uafhængige og neutrale med transparente handelsmodeller 2

3 Vores tjenester 3

4 > 1000 customers in Europe

5 Agenda Strukturelle ændringer i elmarkedet - nogle kommentarer Elåret 2015 hvordan gik det Prisprognose Naturgas - kommentarer 5

6 Sjælland + Skåne = 100 år Sammenkobling af el systemerne på Sjælland og i vestre Skåne SystemopEmering gennem bilateral handel Effektreserve Fælles planering for nye produkeonsenheder 6

7 Strukturelle ændringer i elmarkedet SEgende andel vedvarende produkeon Nye produkeonsmønster Andre økonomiske spilleregler end for tradieonelle krakværker 7

8 Solar power in the German market Investments in solar capacity help decrease price volatility since the traditional mid day peak is removed 8

9 Solar Eclipse in Europe We saw a return to the mid day peak during the solar eclipse on the 20 th of March 9

10 Wind power in the German market Increased wind power capacity is however less predictable Additionally there is no guarantee that the wind will blow when we need electricity 10

11 Tilbud og etterspørsel i Norden 11

12 Utviklingen i ny-fornybar Danmark har et system med direkte subsidier og har nå ca 20% av forbruket dekket av ny-fornybar Sverige Norge og Finland henger etter Med det felles norsk svensk el.sertifikat systemet er det nå muligheter for at Norge også for en betydelig andel ny-fornybart. Målet er å stimulere til 26 TWh produksjon av ny-fornybar kraft i

13 Udviklingen i SE3, SE4 og DK2 Lave spot- og forwardpriser er generelt demoeverende for investeringer. Lave priser på elcerefikater påvirker investeringer i fornybar energi (SE, NO) Øget atomkrakskat rammer drikøkonomien for svenske atomkrakværker VaYenfall har ved generalforsamlingen før sommeren indikeret stop i fored, og i sidste uge bekræket at de ønsker at stoppe driken i Ringhals 1 og 2 senest 2020 Eon har også, i foråret 2015, meldt ud at de ønsker stoppe Oskarshamn 1 og 2 før planeret. Har dog ikke fulgt op med detaljer. Et tab på TWh/år og ca MW effekt vil ramme især SE4 og DK2 prismæssigt 13

14 Tilbud og etterspørsel i Tyskland 14

15 prisudvikling 15

16 ENOYR

17 ENOYR

18 ENOYR

19 Heavy rainfall in

20 Hydro balance 20

21 Kina etterspør (og produserer) ca halvparten av klodens kull 21

22 and falling coal price 22

23 NASDAQ OMX (Power) and Coal (API2) 23

24 Nordiske, tyske og danskepriser henger sammen Selv om Danmark er en del av det nordiske markedet er prisene i Danmark ofte lik de i Tyskland Korrelasjon mellom markedene fra June 2000 DK1 DK2 EEX 0,8518 0,7029 System 0,8104 0,8895 Korrelasjon mellom markedene fra juni 2000 Al oktober 2011 DK1 DK2 EEX 0,8690 0,7027 System 0,8195 0,

25 Svenske og danskepriser henger også sammen Etter at de svenske prisområdene ble innført i november 2011, følger de danske prisene sør Sverige Korrelasjon mellom markedene fra november 2011 DK1 DK2 EEX 0,5406 0,6956 System 0,6613 0,7296 SE4 0,7678 0,8833 SE3 0,7240 0,

26 Områdeprisene Etter at Sverige ble delt i fire prisområder ser vi tendenser til tre hovedområder i det nordiske markedet. Finland, Sør Sverige og Danmark (høypris) 26

27 Områdeprisene Etter at Sverige ble delt i fire prisområder ser vi tendenser til tre hovedområder i det nordiske markedet. Finland, Sør Sverige og Danmark (høypris) Nord Norge og Nord Sverige (mellompris) 27

28 Områdeprisene Etter at Sverige ble delt i fire prisområder ser vi tendenser til tre hovedområder i det nordiske markedet. Finland, Sør Sverige og Danmark (høypris) Nord Norge og Nord Sverige (mellompris) Sør Norge (lavpris) 28

29 Prisudvikling el 29

30 Spotprice /MWh Prognoses 2015: 21,8 30

31 Spotprice Average spotprice: 35,6 /MWh Down 39% 31

32 Spotprice and forward price 32

33 Nasdaq Norden 33

34 Nasdaq Norden Above 50 34

35 Nasdaq Norden Above 50 Around 25 35

36 Nasdaq Norden 36

37 Price prognosis 37

38 Base Case Main bullet points used in the model: Expected increased renewable is 28,1 TWh Swedish nuclear phase out, R1 in 2018 and R2 in 2020 Finnish nuclear phases in, Olkiluoto 3,2018 New cables to Germany in 2018 and England in

39 Nuclear Changes to the base case: Swedish nuclear production plants do not phase out Finnish nuclear production starts as planned

40 Renewable Changes to the base case: Target for new renewable is half of expectations 40

41 Market price 41

42 BEMA s prognosis 42

43 Elprisprognose, med intervaller 43

44 Naturgas 44

45 Det fundamentale bildet Utviklingstakten og konjunkturene danner grunnlaget for prisprognosene Kullprisen bestemmes i Asia Oljeprisen bestemmes i Midtøsten og USA Gassprisen er avhengig av oljeprisen Karbonprisen avhenger av europeiske politikere 45

46 The Global Gas Market The US has increasing shale gas supplies but unable to export unel 2016 keeping domesec prices low and isolaeng the market on a global basis Europe's demand largely met through pipeline gas from Norway and Russia with some LNG imports Growing LNG supply on an internaeonal scale 46

47 Global Pricing Division 47

48 Betydelig andel gass fortsatt knyttet oljepris 48

49 Oil Market: Brent $50,05/bbl, NYMEX $42,56/bbl World oil prices roared back to $50 a barrel in the second day of a freneec short- covering rally on Friday, with violence in Yemen, a storm in the Gulf and refinery outages helping extend the biggest two- day rally in six years. Oil had tumbled in tandem with stocks over much of the past week, hikng 6-1/2- year lows below $40 a barrel as Chinese financial tumult stoked fears of slowing growth. Oil rallied on Thursday as equiees rebounded, but on Friday oil kept pushing higher even as equity markets were calm. USD/bbl Oil - Brent & WTI Brent, the global oil benchmark, closed up $2.49, or 5 percent, at $50.05, aker nearly reaching $51 a barrel. It gained 10 percent on the week. U.S. crude's front- month contract snapped an eight- week losing streak, rising $2.66, or 6.3 percent, to seyle at $45.22 a barrel. At its session high, it was up more than $3, or 7 percent at nearly $46. For the week, it rose 12 percent. U.S. crude's 17 percent gain over the past two sessions was the second largest in 25 years. Yet prices remain at half their year- ago level. Traders noted a lingering global glut of oil supplies, and said the rally was largely fueled by a rush by market players to exit a crowded bearish trade. A global glut of fuel and sluggish demand have cut oil prices in half from a year ago. Worries over China's economy have also weighed on the market in recent weeks Feb- 12 Jun- 12 Oct- 12 Feb- 13 Jun- 13 Oct- 13 Feb- 14 Jun- 14 Oct- 14 Feb- 15 Jun- 15 Brent WTI US Crude oil inventories - 5,45 US Gasoline 1,66 US Distillate 1,44 49

50 European Gas Supplies 50

51 EU Imports of Russian Gas Source: Thomson Reuters 51

52 European Gas Spot Markets Eur/MWh p/th Apr- 13 Jul- 13 Oct- 13 Jan- 14 Apr- 14 Jul- 14 Oct- 14 Jan- 15 Apr- 15 Jul DE NCG DA NL TTF DA UK NBP DA 52

53 Forwardpriser sterkt knyttet til spotutviklingen 53

54 TTF Cal-16 Daily TRNLTTFYZ (LON) Line; TRNLTTFYZ6; Trade Price(Last) ; 19,6N/A; N/A Price EUR MWh 24,0 23,0 22,0 21,0 20,0 19,6 okt nov des jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep Q Q Q Q

55 Price prognosis (TTF) 55

56 Appendix 56

57 Kostnader i et kullkraftverk er prisforventningen i det nordiske kraftmarkedet SRMC kull: ((Kullpris/ Valuta) * konversjonsfaktor) / effekevitetsfaktor) + (CO2 pris * utslippsfaktor) / effekevitetsfaktor+ drikskostnader 57

58 European Gas Market Gas prices followed oils wild ride last week with a significant drop to start the week followed by a recovery back to levels close to where they started. Day ahead gas in the Netherlands started the week at EUR/MWh, fell to 18,68 EUR/MWh on Wednesday and closed the week at EUR/MWh on Friday. This same payern was also evident in the Dutch forward market, and in the majority of European gas markets. Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices for October delivery fell this week as new cargoes offered by Indonesia and Australia outweighed supply problems at Nigeria's Bonny export terminal. The price of Asian spot cargoes fell to around $7.60 per million BriEsh thermal units (mmbtu) on Friday, down from around $7.90 per mmbtu last week. Supply at Nigeria's LNG export plant Eghtened aker Shell warned of constrained feedgas entering the facility due to the shutdown of a major oil pipeline a day earlier. Nigeria LNG had just liked one force majeure a week earlier aker repairing a pipeline. That disrupeon to gas supplies had only a negligible impact on LNG exports, delaying cargo loadings by three to four days. Gas giant Qatar has agreed with PetroChina to skew deliveries under an exiseng long- term LNG supply deal towards the peak demand winter period, a shik likely to weigh on global spot prices. The deal only extends to this winter, one of the sources said, but could be renewed when PetroChina and Qatar discuss their delivery programme for 2016 later this year. With PetroChina's winter gas demand now largely filled through Qatari diversions, global LNG markets should see less Chinese buying on spot markets this winter, pukng pressure on prices. Short term marginal cost including CO2 for gas, quarter ahead ( ) 41,88 58