The researcher s view

Transkript

1 Front-end management of projects The researcher s view

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3 Why the Concept research program? 1. We need to know more about front-end management 2. The Qality Assurance scheme is a great opportunity 3. What might come out of it could be useful

4 An expert has been defined as someone who avoids all the main pitfalls on his or her way to the grand fallacy. (T. H Mintzberg)

5 1. We need to know more about front-end management Front end phase Uncertainty Cost of major amendments Implementation phase Time

6 A public review will commonly result in two alternatives that are identical, while the third alternative for some reason is impossible

7 2. The Qality Assurance scheme is a great opportunity Parliamentary approval Needs The project process Effect QA1: Needs and effect Choice of project concept QA2: Review of cost, uncertainties and basis for decision QA3: Follow-up during implementation

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9 The QA scheme as a laboratory of information Basis for decision making Decision making Analysis Communication Management Needs The project process Effect QA1: Needs and effect Choice of project concept QA2: Review of cost, uncertainties and basis for decision QA3: Follow-up during implementation

10 Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. (Aldous Huxley)

11 QA2: Some problems encountered The significance of cost estimation on cost overrun The significance of cost overrun The effects of stochastic cost estimation and budgeting

12 Ignorance is the basis for much fun (Hagar the Horrible)

13 QA1: Broadening the perspective on projects to help selecting the optimal project Societal process Inputs Project Process Outputs Goal (effect) Purpose (longterm effect) Front-end phase Implementation Phase Operationalphase

14 You can see a lot just by looking (Yogi Berra)

15 Concept definition Systems analysis Functional requirements Concept elaboration Concept SWOT-analysis Internal External Uncertainty mapping Concept assessment Positive Stength Negative Weakness Probability Opportunity Threat Positive Negative Opportunity 0 0 Risk Major opportunity Opportunity Risk Fatal risk Probability Risk analysis Positive Limited High Strategy analysis Internal Purpose Goal Outputs Inputs External Strategic management framework Strategy Negative Progress Probability Uncertainties Uncertainties Uncertainties Uncertainties Projectplanning Cost estimation Profitability Cost Variance Distribution Cost Project plan C 1... C 2... C Income Scope Cost Timing Kr. Kr. Kr. -

16 Professional Exchange Sessions Needs The project process Effect Project start

17 Topics for the sessions B: Decision making D: Contracts and incentives Needs The project process Effect A: Concept evaluation C: Uncertainty and risk analysis Project start E: Portfolio management

18 Concept evaluation (Topic A) Project concepts C1 C2 C3 C4 Parameters P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 Score Needs The project process Effect Project start

19 Decision-making (Topic B) Decision process Appropriation of funds Needs D1 D2 D3 D4 The project process Effect A1 A2 A3 Project Analytic process start

20 Uncertainty and risk analysis (Topic C) Appropriation of funds Needs The project process Effect Stochastic analysis of cost, time, revenue Risk analysis

21 Incentives and contracts (Topic D) Strategic Framework (Commisioner) Uncertainty Flexibility Incentices risk Project (Contractor) Needs The project process Effect Project start

22 Portfolio management (Topic E) Project portfolio Parliament Ministry Agency P1 P2 P3 Contractors Needs The project process Effect Project start

23 The one who does not believe in miracles is not a practical person (Gro Harlem Brundtland)

24 A lesson I learned after a long life at the peak of power, is that the idiots are often right (Winston Churchill)

25 The Concept reserch program Strategy and organisation

26 Strategic focus Development and improvement of the Quality Assurance scheme Implementation of Quality Assurance in public administration and industry Building professional competence and education

27 Concept partners and stakeholders Norwegian Norwegian Ministry Ministry of of Finance Finance Other Norwegian professional institutions Faglig fokus Universities: NTNU and UiO Research arena Consulting firms International professional institutions Technical Technical ministries ministries Government Government agencies agencies Trade Trade and and industry industry

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29 Project concepts C1 C2 C3 C4 Parameters P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 Score Strategic Framework (Commisioner) Project (Contractor) Uncertainty Flexibility Incentices risk Decision process Needs D1 D2 D3 D4 The project process Effect A1 A2 A3 Project Analytic process start Stochastic analysis of cost, time, revenue Risk analysis Parliament Ministry Agency Project portfolio P1 P2 P3 Contractors

30 Needs The project process Effect Project start

31 Needs The project process Effect Project start

32 Needs The project process Effect Project start

33 Needs The project process Effect Project start

34 Noen foreløpige prosjektmål Resultatmål 1. Utvikling av kvalitetssikringsregimet 2. Overføring av kunnskap til forvaltning og næringsliv 3. Kompetanseutvikling og utdanning Prosjektmål En stor mengde nye modeller, tankesett og metoder for ulike former av tidligfase analyse og kvalitetssikring. To internasjonale samarbeidsprosjekter innenfor det internasjonale nettverket En håndbok i tidligfase og kvalitetssikring Spesifikasjon for et IT-basert verktøy for risikoanalyse og erfaringsdatabase Minst 15 artikler i internasjonale tidsskrifter Minst 10 papers presentert ved internasjonale konferanser Minst 5 nasjonale eller internasjonale arrangement for erfaringsutveksling og spredning av resultater Minst 6 doktorgrader fra de deltakende universiteter Minst 25 diplom/hovedfagsoppgaver Minst 5 nye kurs, enten som en del av grunnutdannelsen, eller som en del av etterutdanningen.

35 Studies: 3. Front-end management and decision-making in public projects 2. Analysis of incentives and selection of contract regime Foundation for decision-making Decision Management Operation Identification of needs Behov Analysis and promotion of alternatives Analyse Selection of final Konsept concept Budsjett Appropriation of funding Project planning & Prosjekt implementation Resultat Project outputs Short- and long-term Effekt effects Concept selection Cost analysis Portfolio management 6. Requirements for project purpose and assessments of project impact 4. Concept evaluation through analysis of needs and alternatives 5. Ensuring quality-atentry through analysis of uncertainty and risk 1. Aggregate level management of portfolio of projects Common initiatives: Evaluation of scheme SINTEF/NTNU/UiO International Symposium SINTEF/NTNU/UiO Quality assurance handbook NTNU/UiO Educational material and documentation of lessons learned Running initiatives: Participation in quality assurance NTNU/UiO Database of major projects NTNU Advisory services NTNU/UiO Forum for project management, seminars NTNU and others

36 Tidligfaseprosessen Mer vekt på informasjon og prosess før analyse og valg Mindre søppel mer substans Mindre vekt på metode, kompleksitet presisjon Mer vekt på å teste kvaliteten av beslutningsunderlaget Mer vekt på forvaltningsmessige aspekter av prosessen Realitetssjekk av tidligfaseprosesser Testing av informasjonsunderlaget Testing av nytte og samsvar Forvaltningsprosessen Metodens godhet Kommunikasjonen Kunnskap Antakelse/ erfaring Inndata Metode/ analyse Beslutningsunderlag Formidling Forståelse Beslutning Hendelse/ realisering Infokilder Databaser Benchmarks Informasjonskostnader Relevans av informasjon Konsekvens Samsvar med erfaringsdata Samsvar med beslutningsunderlag Informasjonskvalitet Gruppeprosesser Politiske prosesser Interaksjon mellom institusjoner Presisjon/skjevhet Konsensus/dissens Metodevalg Kompleksitet Anvendbarhet Sammenliknbarhet Presisjon Anvendbarhet Kvalitet Omfang Bredde i konseptvurdering Eksistens av alternativer Prosesser Kommuniserbarhet Enkelhet Nedslagsfelt Åpenhet Samsvar Dybde Omfang Bruk Samsvar Prosess Konseptvalg

37 Følgeforskning Hovedproblemstillinger som følgeforskningen skal arbeide med Hvordan hente inn informasjon, og hvilke metoder kan benyttes? Godheten av kvalitetssikringsregimet - omfang, tidspunkt Gjennomgang av rapporter Diskusjon med kvalitetssikrerne Kvalitetssikringen Prosjektene Godheten av kvalitetssikringsarbeidet -metode - kompetanse/erfaring - prosess - formidling Effekten av kvalitetssikringen - på beslutning - nytte vs kostnad Kvalitetssikringsregimets begrensninger - politiske prosesser Effekten av kvalitetssikringen på prosjektenes resultat Aksept av kvalitetssikringsregimet Diskusjon med brukerne Deltakelse i kvalitetssikringsarbeid Sammenliknende studie av rapporter Samtaler med brukerne og eierne (departement/etat) Registrering av faktiske opplysninger om beslutning, implementering av disse, kostnader, innsparing etc. Samtaler med sentrale aktører Samtaler med alle parter Ettervurdering av prosjekter sett i sammenheng med regimets anbefalinger Samtaler med ansvarlige om dette

38 1. Experience/ judgement 3. Indata 2. Knowledge Testing the basis of information 4. Method/ analysis Quality of the Method 5. Basis for decisions 6. Communication 7. Understanding 8. Decision 9. Result realisation Quality of communication Decision making process Testing correspondence and usefulness

39 Uncertainty Project purpose Project purpose Project goal Project goal Project outputs Project outputs Time

40 Operasjonelle forhold Context Societal perspective Project purpose Uncertainties Project goal Uncertainties Userperspective Projectperspective Output Output Output Uncertainties Resources Resources Resources

41 Operator s perspective Userperspective Societal perspective Resources Output Resources Output Goal Purpose Project structure Resources Output Uncertainties Uncertainties Uncertainties Context

42 Cost/utility Utility of higher quality data Cost of higher quality data Max Net value Data quality

43 Information Uncertainty Time

44 It is easier to solve problems than crises. (John Guinther)

45 Theories we trust are called facts, and facts we distrust are called theories (Gudmund Hernes)

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