Morgenrapport, fredag, 29. juni 2012

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1 Morgenrapport, fredag, 29. juni 2012 Enighet om kortsiktige tiltak for å få ned Spania og Italias lånekostnader positivt mottatt EU-kommisjonens konjunkturbarometer styrker argumentene for rentekutt fra ESB Den registrerte arbeidsledigheten i Norge stiger uventet til det høyeste nivået siden oktober i fjor Vi venter små endringer i norsk detaljhandel i mai Morgenrapporten tar ferie fram til 1. august og ønsker alle en riktig god sommer! Internasjonalt Eurosonens ledere ble i natt enige om kortsiktige tiltak for å få ned lånekostnadene i Spania og Italia etter at de to landene skal ha nektet å støtte den nye vekstpakken på 120 milliarder euro før de fikk forsikringer om slike tiltak. Reuters melder at stabilitetsfondene (EFSF/ESM) vil få kjøpe statsobligasjoner fra de kriserammede landene dersom de ber om det. Landene som får slik støtte må forplikte seg til å overholde tidsfrister for budsjettinnstramming og reformer som allerede er avtalt med EU, men uten å bli gjenstand for like omfattende overvåking og kontroll som landene som landene som har fått kriselån. Det ble også enighet om at det permanente stabilitetsfondet (ESM) skal kunne skyte inn kapital direkte i bankene uten at statsgjelden øker og uten at ESM får prioritert kreditorstatus. Endelig tok eurosonens ledere også et første skritt mot en bankunion da de vedtok å opprette et felles overvåkingsorgan for bankene. Tyskland har vært skeptiske til flere av tiltakene som nå vil bli gjennomført, og at den tyske motstanden ble overvunnet ble positivt mottatt i finansmarkedene. Euroen styrket seg mot dollar da meldingen fra Brussel kom i natt. EU-toppmøtet avsluttes formelt i ettermiddag. At situasjonen i forkant av møtet var prekær illustreres av at renten på italienske statsobligasjonene med ti års løpetid endte på 6,19 prosent i gårsdagens auksjon, opp fra 6,03 prosent i mai og det høyeste nivået siden desember. EU-kommisjonens konjunkturbarometer (Economic Sentiment Index) for eurosonen falt fra 90,5 i mai til 89,9 i juni. Dette var et litt mindre fall enn ventet, men indeksen er på det laveste nivået siden oktober Etter at eurosonen så vidt unngikk å havne i resesjon i første kvartal peker ESI mot et markert fall i BNP i andre kvartal. Stemningen i industrien og tjenestesektoren har forverret seg den siste måneden, og optimismen blant husholdningene har falt litt, mens det er litt bedre stemning i bygg- og anlegg og i varehandelen. Sysselsettingsplanene er revidert ned både i industrien og tjenestesektoren. Interessant nok rapporteres det om bedre stemning både i Spania og Italia, mens ESI faller markert i Frankrike og Tyskland. Konjunkturbarometeret styrker argumentene for at Den europeiske sentralbanken (ESB) vil kutte renten på rentemøtet neste uke. Arbeidsledigheten i Tyskland var 6,8 prosent i juni, uendret fra mai, men litt høyere enn ventet. Ledigheten er imidlertid fortsatt på det laveste nivået siden gjenforeningen. Endelige tall bekreftet at BNP-veksten i USA i første kvartal var 1,9 prosent målt i årlig rate, en markert nedgang fra fjerde kvartal da økonomien vokste med 3 prosent. Bedringen i arbeidsmarkedet synes også å ha stoppet litt opp. Antallet nye dagpengesøknader falt riktignok med til forrige uke, men nok en gang ble tallene fra foregående uke opprevidert. Dagpengesøknadene har de siste ukene ligget godt over nivåene fra i februar og mars, og den positive trenden vi har sett siden i fjor sommer er brutt. I dag får vi foreløpige tall for inflasjonen i eurosonen i juni, samt statistikk for amerikanske husholdningers forbruk og inntekt i mai. Fra USA får vi også det endelige estimatet på forbrukertilliten i juni fra University of Michigan samt innkjøpsjefsindeksen for industrien fra Chicago i juni. Sistnevnte ventes å komme inn på om lag samme nivå som i mai. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

2 Norge EUR/USD har styrket seg fra 1,2450 til 1,2600 her på morgenkvisten etter enighet på EU-toppmøtet om at det europeiske krisefondet kan kjøpe statsobligasjoner, uten senioritet, samt at fondet kan benyttes til direkte rekapitalisering av europeiske banker. Krysset EUR/NOK noteres til 7,55, uendret fra stengningen i amerikansk handletid. Vi ser fremdeles for oss en sterk krone i dagene fremover, noe den økte risikoappetitten trolig vil bidra til. Arbeidsledigheten steg i juni for tredje måned på rad ifølge NAV. Antallet helt ledige og på arbeidsmarkedstiltak steg med personer, fra i mai til i juni. Dette betyr at den markerte nedgangen i ledigheten ved årsskiftet er reversert, og ledigheten er nå på det høyeste nivået siden oktober Antallet helt ledige økte med personer i juni. Oppgangen i arbeidsledigheten i juni var større enn vi ventet, men utviklingen i den registrerte ledigheten er godt i tråd med vårt syn at arbeidsstyrken vil vokse raskere enn sysselsettingen fremover og bidra til at arbeidsledigheten øker litt gjennom høsten. Gårsdagens tall står i kontrast til de sterke tallene fra Arbeidskraftundersøkelsen (AKU) tidligere i uken, og er trolig ikke nok til at Norges Bank endrer syn på arbeidsmarkedet. I dag får vi statistikk for detaljhandelen i mai. Omsetningen i detaljhandelen vokste med hele 1,7 prosent i første kvartal, men falt svakt i april. Vi venter at veksten vil avta i andre kvartal. Vår prognose er at omsetningen holdt seg om lag uendret fra mai til juni, mens økte bilkjøp og høyere elektrisitetsforbruk trolig vil trekke opp veksten i varekonsumet. Vi får også tall for norsk forbrukertillit i juni målt ved det månedlige ForbrukerMeteret (CCI). Etter å ha steget markert i første kvartal, har forbrukertilliten vært stabil de to siste månedene. Forverringen av gjeldskrisen og større usikkerhet kan ha dempet optimismen til husholdningene litt i juni. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Ida Wolden Bache Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , knmo01@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, , kadu01@handelsbanken.no Ida Wolden Bache, , idba01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no 29. juni

3 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK EUR/USD USD/NOK USD/JPY SEK/NOK EUR/JPY Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK EUR/GBP ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK GBP/USD CHF/NOK EUR/CHF JPY/NOK EUR/SEK Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK EUR/DKK Foliorente SGD/NOK USD/KRW EUR/NOK CAD/NOK USD/RUB Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 09:30 Sverige Detaljhandel Mai Prosent m/m -0,3-0,1 0,4, 09:30 Sverige Handelsbalanse Mai Mrd. SEK 4,8 -- 9,8 09:55 Tyskland Arbeidsledighet Juni Prosent 6,8 6,7 6,8 10:00 Norge Arbeidsledighet (NAV) Juni Antall tusen 83,06 82,66 84,27 10:30 Storbritannia BNP, endelig 1. kv. Prosent kv/kv -0,3-0,3-0,3 10:30 Storbritannia Driftsbalanse 1. kv. Mrd. GBP -7,23-9,00-11,2 11:00 Eurosonen Konjunkturbarometer (ESI) Juni Indeks 90,5 89,5 89,9 11:00 Eurosonen Forbrukertillit Juni Indeks -19,3-19,6-19,8 11:00 Eurosonen Industrisentiment Juni Indeks -11,4-12,0-12,7 11:00 Eurosonen Forretningsklima Juni Indeks -0,79-0,89-0,94 14:30 USA BNP, tredje estimat 1. kv. Ann. pros. kv/kv 1,9 1,9 1,9 14:30 USA Nye dagpengesøknader Forrige uke Antall tusen Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 09:30 Sverige Utlånsvekst husholdninger Mai Prosent år/år 4, :00 Norge Detaljhandel Mai Prosent m/m -0,2 0,5 0,0 10:00 Norge Forbukertillit (CCI) Juni Indeks 9, :00 Eurosonen Inflasjon, foreløpig Juni Prosent år/år 2,4 2, :30 USA Personlig inntekt Mai Prosent m/m 0,2 0, :30 USA Personlig forbruk Mai Prosent m/m 0,3 0, :30 USA Konsumdeflator, kjerne Mai Prosent m/m 0,1 0, :45 USA Chicago PMI Juni Indeks 52,7 52, :55 USA Forbrukertillit (Mich), end. Juni Indeks 74,1 74, juni

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