19 November Andreas Stubsrud Head of Research

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1 19 November 2012 Andreas Stubsrud Head of Research

2 Vi har vært i et bear marked i lang tid 1. Indeksen var 371 slutten av 2009 og 382 slutten av 2011, mens den er i 429 nå 2. «Bear» markedet startet egentlig sommeren 2007, finansmarkedet fikk første skikkelige smell Januar 2008, mens Lehman gikk ned september Vi tror indeksen er høyere 31 desember i år og høyere slutten av 2013 Mine favoritter nå: 1. Prospector Offshore Drilling 2. Dolphin Group Small cap har hatt et begredelig år 1. Small cap aksjer har hatt et fryktelig år, mens large cap har gått ganske bra 2. Nesten alle selskaper i verden trenger penger (refinansiering) i fremtiden, men i 2012 har man utelukket fokusert på dette 3. Seadrill 2

Vi tror indeksen er høyere 31 desember i år og høyere slutten av 2013 Mine favoritter nå: 1. Prospector Offshore Drilling 2.

3 Spare oil production capacity should remain low OPEC spare capacity relative to world demand e OPEC spare capacity relative to world demand 25% 20% 15% 10% The structural decline in spare capacity continues 5% 0% e Source: IEA; BP; Pareto 3

demand 25% 20% 15% 10% The structural decline in spare capacity continues

4 Example of asymmetry in supply and demand s growth potential: How China and India could wipe out spare capacity by 2016 Consumption per capita: India, China, EU, US Consumption per capita 65-16e: India, China Oil consumption per capita (bbls/year) 25 China and India oil consumption per capita (bbls/capita) Change in growth needed to wipe out spare capacity by India China EU US 2011 Zero spare capacity in 2016 (Demand 2.6 mbd higher than base case) e Zero spare capacity in 2016 China India OPEC spare capacity would be gone in 2016 if annual oil consumption per capita increases from 2.6 to 3.4 bbls in China and from 1.1 to 1.5 bbls in India Although such an increase in consumption per capita over just four years is not very likely, it is not completely unrealistic Supply however, could not be anywhere near those levels, which means that a high oil price is needed to constrain demand growth Source: IEA; IMF; BP; Pareto 4

0 9.8 1.1 2.6 India China EU US 2011 Zero spare capacity in 2016 (Demand 2.6 mbd higher than base case) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.

5 Chinese oil demand growth is not as extraordinary as most think Oil demand since 75 : China vs. Sum of Algeria, Ecuador, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, UAE, Vietnam Oil demand (mbd) Aggregate of Algeria, Ecuador, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, UAE, Vietnam China Source: BP; Pareto 5

Sum of Algeria, Ecuador, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, UAE, Vietnam Oil demand

6 Prospector Offshore Drilling: The right jackup exposure at deep discount Company Overview Rig #1 (Dalian 1) 400 ft Total at 185'/day Pareto est. 185'$/day Rig #2 (Dalian 2) 400 ft Pareto est. 185'$/day Rig #3 (Dalian 3) 400 ft Pareto est. 185'$/day Rig #4 (Dalian 4) 400 ft Pareto est. 185'$/day Rig #5 (Shanghai Waigaoqiao 1) 400 ft Pareto est. 185'$/day Rig #6 (Shanghai Waigaoqiao 2) 400 ft Pareto est. 185'$/day Contract Option Yard Available Rig # 1 Rig # 2 Rig # 3 Rig # 4 Rig # 5 Rig # 6 Yard Dalian Dalian Dalian Dalian SWS SWS Design F&G JU-2000E F&G JU-2000E F&G JU-2000E F&G JU-2000E F&G JU-2000E F&G JU-2000E Turnkey price (USDm) Delivery Feb-13 Mar-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 May-14 Payment terms 10:90 10:90 10:90 10:90 1:99 1:99 Real options 99% construction financing also 6 months after delivery Source: Pareto Research, Prospector 6

185'$/day Rig #6 (Shanghai Waigaoqiao 2) 400 ft Pareto est.

7 USD 132m to fund for 1x jackup by August 2013 Sources and uses for Prospector (as a two-rig company) USDm 500 Needed financing for 1x jackup by August Sources: - Cash on hand - September equity issue - Sale of two rigs - Debt financing secured - Total available: USD 311m Remaining capex to complete two rigs: - USD 191m on rig # 1 - USD 202m on rig # 3 - USD 50m for working capital - Total: 443m Cash Q2'12-17 SG&A + Capex H2'12 66 Equity issue Sept Sale of rigs Secured debt financing Needed financing Remaining capex: Source: Pareto 7

132 443 Remaining capex to complete two rigs: - USD 191m on rig # 1 - USD 202m on rig # 3 - USD 50m for working capital - Total: 443m 200 106 150 311

8 Solid economics EV/EBITDA of 4.7x at USD 200 /day dayrates USDm per JU EV/EBITDA NOK/Share Value per JU EV/EBITDA at USD 200'/day EV/EBITDA at USD 225'/day 2 Source: Pareto Research, Company 8

100 231 271 311 EV/EBITDA 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 50 3 0 11 15 20 25

9 Dolphin: Seismikk dagrater er på vei opp Historical and estimated dayrate development (10-12 streamer) Contract seismic pricing (high end) 450, , ,000 Current fixture range 300, , , ,000 Q314e Q1'14e Q313e Q1'13e Q312 Q1'12 Q3'11 Q1'11 Q3'10 Q1'10 Q3'09 Q1'09 Q3'08 Q1'08 Q3'07 Q1'07 Source: Pareto Research 9

350,000 Current fixture range 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Q314e Q1'14e Q313e

10 Dolphin vil ha sterk inntjeningsvekst fremover - Dagens aksjekurs i DOLP er NOK 5.5 P/E 10x 2012e og P/E 3x med alle båter i vannet på dagens rater EPS (NOK) 2.5 P/E 3x assuming 2013 dayrates and all vessels delivered e 2013e 2014e 2013 adj. Source: Pareto Research 10

5 P/E 10x 2012e og P/E 3x med alle båter i vannet på dagens rater EPS

11 Seadrill UDW flåte dobler seg fra 2010 to % 22 West Mira West Rigel 20 West Saturn West Neptune 17 West Jupiter West Tellus West Vela 14 West Auriga 13 West Leo West Capricorn 11 West Pegasus West Orion 10 West Gemini West Aquarius West Eminence West Hercules West Taurus West Phoenix West Sirius West Capella West Polaris West Navigator E 2013E 2014E Source: Pareto Research, ODS 11

Pegasus West Orion 10 West Gemini West Aquarius West Eminence West Hercules West Taurus West Phoenix

12 Seadrill growth fueling increased dividends Dividend per share development SDRL (quarterly basis) Dividend/share ? Shareprice Q4'07 Q2'08 Q4'08 Q2'09 Q4'09 Q2'10 Q4'10 Q2'11 Q4'11 Q2'12 Q4'12e Extraordinary Ordinary Shareprice (rhs) 0 Source: Seadrill, Pareto Research 12

00 Q4'07 Q2'08 Q4'08 Q2'09 Q4'09 Q2'10 Q4'10 Q2'11 Q4'11 Q2'12 Q4'12e

13 Anbefalinger Prospector: Dagens kurs NOK 11,3, kursmål NOK Mer eller mindre full finansiert 2. Fantastisk avkastning per rigg 3. Kursen under det riggene kostet i 2010 Dolphin: Dagens kurs NOK 5,5, kursmål NOK Rater på vei opp 2. Trygg balanse 3. Svært billig Seadrill: Dagens kurs NOK 217, kursmål NOK Vi er i et «Winners take it all» marked, SDRL har gjort alt og gjør alt riktig 2. Vår oljeanalyse sier oss at vi trenger mer boring 3. USD 4 dividende er NOK 23 historisk div yield på 8% tilsvarer NOK 289 Source: ODS, Pareto Research 13

Svært billig Seadrill: Dagens kurs NOK 217, kursmål NOK 285 1.

14 Disclaimer Pareto and the analyst accept no responsibility and expressively disclaim any and all liabilities for any and all losses related to investments caused by or motivated by Recommendations from Pareto. Any person receiving a Recommendation from Pareto is deemed to have accepted this disclaimer. The disclaimer shall apply even if an Investment Recommendation is shown to be erroneous or incomplete or based upon incorrect or incomplete facts, interpretations or assessments or assumptions by Pareto, and irrespective of whether Pareto or any person related to Pareto can be blamed for the incident. For further disclosures on relevant definitions, methods, risks, potential conflicts of interest etc. and disclaimers please see All investment recommendations should be reviewed in conjunction with the information therein. 14

The disclaimer shall apply even if an Investment Recommendation is shown to be erroneous or incomplete or based upon incorrect or incomplete facts, interpretations or assessments or assumptions by

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