Sikringsmuligheter i urolige markeder. Sotra 17. februar 2015 Eirik Kronstad Johnsen og Bjørn Lisøy, DNB Markets, Bergen

Transkript

1 Sikringsmuligheter i urolige markeder Sotra 17. februar 2015 Eirik Kronstad Johnsen og Bjørn Lisøy, DNB Markets, Bergen 1

2 Vinnere og tapere i 2014 Mens første halvår var et stort gjesp lå vi våkne i hele andre halvår 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% Valutamarkedet Indeksbasert (YTD) NOK USD EUR GBP SEK 12.56% 3.41% 7.74% 10.00% 0.00% % Gull Kobber Aluminium Råolje CRB -0.85% Råvaremarkedet 2014 (YTD) 3.39% 0.00% % % % -5.00% % % -9.55% -5.74% % % % % Obligasjonsmarkedet (10yr) endring i prosentpoeng (YTD) Aksjer 2014 (YTD) 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% -2.00% 10 yr US 10 yr EU 10 yr NO 10 yr GR -0.83% -1.40% -1.10% 1.06% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 11.39% 7.12% 4.95% 2.90% 2.93% S&P 500 Nikkei 225 OSEBX Stoxx50 MSCI World -1.83% MSCI EM 2

3 Også nyhetsbildet ble mer og mer negativt i fjor: økonomisk, politisk, ute og ikke minst hjemme! 3

4 Økonomiene på rett vei. Men: Mange har ennå ikke tatt igjen det tapte BNP, sesongjustert Prosentvis endring siden 2008Q1-15 Q Q Q Q USA EZ-kj. PIIGS Japan UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Arbeidsledighet Prosent av arbeidsstyrken 0 Dec-04 Dec-09 Dec-14 USA ØMU Japan UK Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

5 USA oppe i marsjfart rundt 3% Drahjelp fra billigere olje. Venter fortsatt på lønnsveksten 10 USA: BNP, inflasjon & ledighet Prosent 2 USA: Ledighetsgap og lønnsvekst Prosent BNP k/k sjår Ledighet KPI å/å Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets -5 0 Q Q Q Q Ledighetsgap Lønnskostnader (ECI), å/å (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

6 Mange spør seg: Hvilke av de store industrilandene skal nå trekke lasset...? Og trolig må vi igjen sette vår lit til de fremvoksende økonomiene Kuttes stimulansene for tidlig? Full oppbremsing i boligmarkedet Pengetrykking uten effekt? Eksporten bremser Svekket produksjon og eksport Tar fortsatt ikke nødvendige grep 6

7 Drar lønnsvekst og kjerneinflasjon ned 1-2% lønnsvekst er normalen rundt oss. 6 Lønn År/år i pst. Noen av seriene er glattet 4 Kjerneinflasjon Prosentvis endring år/år Q Q Q USA ØMU UK Sverige Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 1 0 Dec-04 Dec-09 Dec-14 USA Eurosonen UK Sverige Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

8 Kjerneinflasjon i Norge. (KPI-JAE) Sentralbanken styrer etter ett inflasjonsmålet på 2,5%. Markets 8

9 9

10 Investeringene på vei ned. Totale realinvesteringer i prosent av BNP. Markets 10

11 Hvorfor er investeringene lave? Noen momenter Høye investeringer før finanskrisen, særlig i boligmarkedet Ledig produksjonskapasitet og svakere vekstutsikter Usikkerhet om den økonomiske utviklingen Stramme lånevilkår i mange europeiske land Mindre tro på lønnsom vekst i vestlige økonomier Arbeidsstyrken vokser saktere. Demografiske trekk er negative. Deflasjons «Spøkelse»? 11

12 Lik det eller ikke; Norge ER et oljeland! Prisfallet bekymrer fordi oljens betydning for norsk økonomi er formidabel. På godt og vondt!...som andel av BNP % Petroleum 75% BNP utenom petroleum...som andel av investeringene som andel av samlet eksport % 31% Petroleum Investeringer utenom olje 48% 52% Petroleum Eksport utenom petroleum og hver tiende arbeidsplass i Norge er enten direkte, eller indirekte, knyttet til petroleumssekto 12

13 De seneste investeringstellingene var illevarslende? stimulansene går fra kraftig positive til mildt negative Oljeinvesteringer Milliarder NOK

14 14

15 Tanker om å gjenerobre den amerikanske drømmen. A nation that can't control its energy sources can't control its future. USA har tre prosent av verdens oljereserver. Vi bruker 25 prosent av verdens oljeproduksjon. Vi kan ikke bare bore oss ut av problemet Vi må samtidig se på muligheten for å bruke alternativ energi og bygge mindre og mer drivstoffeffektive biler og fly. Markets 15

16 US Crude Production Back On The Rise The Shale Revolution - After more than 20 years of steep production decline, US production is rising again Million b/d Million b/d 11.0 US Monthly Crude Oil Production Jan-60 Jan-67 Jan-74 Jan-81 Jan-88 Jan-95 Jan-02 Jan-09 Source: US DOE 16

17 Cars Markets 17

18 Even A 25% Reduction In Activity Will Provide Further Growth - Even reducing the number of well additions by 25% will not lead to reduced production Monthly well additions Million b/d 250 Bakken - Monthly Well Additions 6-month moving average Modelled Bakken Crude Oil Production Decline rate pr well: 81% the first three years, thereafter 2.4% per year new wells/month (forward looking) - IP rate 390 b/d Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, DNB Markets Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan Accumulated production start up 29,094 90, , , ,344 1,193,634 1,885,104 2,584,764 3,382,314 4,084,314 4,786,314 5,488,314 6,190,314 6,892,314 7,594,314 Net production end of year 9,406 50, , , , , , ,721 1,069,120 1,154,493 1,260,856 1,370,825 1,480,144 1,586,868 1,691,059 Accumulated decline 19,688 39, , , , ,369 1,152,960 1,708,043 2,313,194 2,929,821 3,525,458 4,117,489 4,710,170 5,305,446 5,903,255 Yearly start up 29,094 61, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Total yearly production decline 19,688 19,893 77, , , , , , , , , , , , ,809 Decline vs new start up 68% 32% 47% 73% 62% 56% 67% 79% 76% 88% 85% 84% 84% 85% 85% Yearly net production increase 41,337 87,425 49, , , , , ,399 85, , , , , ,191 18

19 Familien Bakken er nå synlig fra verdensrommet NASA-bildet som viser Bakken-feltet i Nord-Dakota sett fra verdensrommet. En lang vei for Otto & Mary Bakken, som kom fra fattige kår i Norge til USA i 1880-årene. De fikk 13 barn, bl.a. Henry, som drev gården da feltet ble oppdaget. På bildet ses Henry (bak, 51) med bror Harry (48) og mor Mary (83). Mer alvorlig: Skiferoljefeltene fakler nå nok gass til å forsyne alle hjem i Chicago og Washington med energi. USAs gassfakling tredoblet på fem år, bl.a. pga. lave gasspriser, som gjør utbygging av infrastruktur ulønnsomt.

20 20

21 The Saudi Royal Family (Source Wikipedia) Abdul Aziz (Ibn Saud) King: Founded Saudi Arabia in wives (4 at a time) 45 sons of which 5 have been kings King Saud King: Forced out Crown Price Sultan Died King Faisal King: Killed Crown Price Naif Ultra conservative Died King Khalid King: Heart Attack King Fahad King: Stroke New Crown Price Salman 25 th son of Ibn Saud Defence Minister Well regarded Trusted mediator Had a stroke in 2010 King Abdullah King: Regent since 1995 Unifying and popular 6 sons 21

22 Hva påvirker den norske kronen? Handlingsparametrene er mange: - Rentedifferansen - Finanspolitikken - Volatiliteten - Risikoappetitten - Ordrestrømmene - Oljeprisen - Børsutviklingen - Grunnbalansen - Kjøpene til oljefondet - Markedets posisjonering - Oppkjøp og fusjoner - Den svenske kronen - EURUSD-kursen - Tekniske signaler (charts) - Data-trading Er valutakursbevegelsene forutsigbare? Markets 22

23 Sikringsmuligheter i Valuta Termin - instrumenter - plikt - tosidig risiko - striken kan ikke velges Opsjons - instrumenter - rett - ensidig risiko - premie - striken kan velges Markets 23

24 EKSTERNE SIKRINGSMULGHETER Opplåning/plassering på balansen Finansielle instrumenter Terminforretninger Opsjoner Swapper Fleksibel Termin Ved valg av INSTRUMENT/LØSNING er det viktig å vurdere reelle sikringseffekter, regnskapmessige effekter og likviditetseffekter ved de alternative løsningene! Markets 24

25 Hva er renter? Rente er kostnad for å leie kapital. Historien om dagens rentemodell starter i: Standardisering av renten The mother of every reference rate: LIBOR

26 NIBOR er en kopi av LIBOR. Norwegian Interbank Offered Rate er den mest brukte referanserenten i penge og kredittmarkedet. Det er blant annet grunnlag for en rekke utlånsrenter fra offentlige banker. NIBOR er basert på swaprenter fordi markedet for usikrede lån i norske kroner mellom norske kroner er lite både med tanke på omsetning og aktuelle deltakere. Renten fastsettes ved gjennomsnittet av daglige rentebud fra de seks største bankene. NB! NIBOR Brukes også som forkortelse for: New York Interbank Offered Rate Nigerian Interbank Offered Rate. 26

27 Markets 27

28 <Agenda> NIBOR 3m og RSW 10 år <Footer> 28

29 Lange renter har gått i «kjelleren» NIBOR 3 mnd 1,40% Fastrente via Rentebytteavtale (RSW) : - 5 år 1,35 % Bullet (uten avdrag) - 10 år 1,82% Bullet (uten avdrag) - 5 år 1,33% 25 års struktur til 0-10 år 1,75 % 25 års struktur til

30 LØPETID Forwardmatrise START SPOT 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 1Y 1.22 % 1.12 % 1.27 % 1.56 % 1.84 % 2.06 % 2.35 % 2.55 % 2.75 % 2.87 % 3.14 % 2Y 1.16 % 1.17 % 1.38 % 1.65 % 1.89 % 2.13 % 2.36 % 2.55 % 2.70 % 2.88 % 2.86 % 3Y 1.18 % 1.27 % 1.50 % 1.75 % 1.99 % 2.21 % 2.42 % 2.58 % 2.76 % 2.78 % 2.79 % 4Y 1.26 % 1.39 % 1.61 % 1.86 % 2.09 % 2.29 % 2.48 % 2.65 % 2.72 % 2.75 % 2.78 % 5Y 1.35 % 1.50 % 1.72 % 1.96 % 2.17 % 2.36 % 2.55 % 2.64 % 2.70 % 2.75 % 2.79 % 6Y 1.45 % 1.61 % 1.83 % 2.05 % 2.25 % 2.44 % 2.56 % 2.64 % 2.71 % 2.76 % 2.75 % 7Y 1.55 % 1.71 % 1.92 % 2.13 % 2.33 % 2.46 % 2.57 % 2.65 % 2.73 % 2.73 % 2.72 % 8Y 1.65 % 1.81 % 2.01 % 2.22 % 2.36 % 2.48 % 2.59 % 2.68 % 2.70 % 2.71 % 2.71 % 9Y 1.74 % 1.89 % 2.09 % 2.25 % 2.39 % 2.51 % 2.62 % 2.66 % 2.69 % 2.70 % 2.71 % 10Y 1.82 % 1.98 % 2.14 % 2.29 % 2.42 % 2.54 % 2.61 % 2.65 % 2.68 % 2.70 % 2.71 % 30

31 Markets 31

32 Markets 32

33 NOK 10 års rentebytteavtale. Daily QNOKAB6O10Y= Line; QNOKAB6O10Y=; Ask(Last); Merging real-time updates ; ; ; (+0.85%) (GMT) Price NOK j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Markets Auto 33

34 <Agenda> Daily QUSDAM3L10Y= USD RSW 10 år Line; QUSDAM3L10Y=; Ask(Last); Merging real-time updates ; ; ; (+0.66%) (GMT) j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Price USD Auto <Footer> 34

35 <Agenda> EUR RSW 10 år Daily QEURAB6E10Y= Line; QEURAB6E10Y=; Bid(Last) ; ; ; (-1.36%) (GMT) Price EUR Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Auto <Footer> 35

36 DNB Markets renteprognoser Styringsrente 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 USA: Fed Funds Japan: Dag-til-dag Euroland: Repo UK: Bank rate Sverige: Repo Norge: Folio Sveits: 3M Libor CHF Tre mndr 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 USA Japan Euroland Storbritannia Sverige Norge Sveits år swap 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 USA Japan Euroland Storbritannia Sverige Norge Sveits

37 EURNOK Daily QEURNOK= Line; QEURNOK=; Bid(Last) ; ; ; (-0.34%) (GMT) Price NOK okt 14 november 2014 desember 2014 januar 2015 februar 2015 Markets Auto 37

38 <Agenda> USDNOK Daily QNOK= Line; QNOK=; Ask(Last) ; ; (-0.51%) (GMT) Price /USD aug 14 sep 14 okt 14 nov 14 des 14 jan 15 feb Auto <Footer> 38

39 EURUSD Daily QEUR= Line; QEUR=; Ask(Last) ; ; ; (+0.18%) (GMT) Price USD aug 14 sep 14 okt 14 nov 14 des 14 jan 15 feb 15 Auto Markets 39

40 DNB Markets valutaprognoser Valutakurs 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 USDJPY EURUSD EURGBP EURDKK EURSEK EURNOK EURCHF USDCNY Kalkulerte prognoser 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 SEKNOK USDNOK GBPNOK JPYNOK DKKNOK CHFNOK NOKTWI I

41 Takk for oppmerksomheten! Noen steder er det optimisme. 41

42 Important/Disclaimer This note (the Note ) must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 2007 paragraph 3-10 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 2007/06/29 no The Note has been prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA, a Norwegian bank organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Norway (the Bank ), for information purposes only. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. The Bank, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (individually, each a DNB Party ; collectively, DNB Parties ) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Note. DNB Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, nor for the results obtained from the use of the Note, nor for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Note is provided on an as is basis. DNB PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE NOTE S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE NOTE WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall DNB Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Note, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions expressed herein reflect the Bank s judgment at the time the Note was prepared and DNB Parties assume no obligation to update the Note in any form or format. The Note should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. No DNB Party is acting as fiduciary or investment advisor in connection with the dissemination of the Note. While the Note is based on information obtained from public sources that the Bank believes to be reliable, no DNB Party has performed an audit of, nor accepts any duty of due diligence or independent verification of, any information it receives. Confidentiality rules and internal rules restrict the exchange of information between different parts of the Bank and this may prevent employees of DNB Markets who are preparing the Note from utilizing or being aware of information available in DNB Markets/the Bank which may be relevant to the recipients of the Note. The Note is not an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. Distribution of material like the Note is in certain jurisdictions restricted by law. Persons in possession of the Note should seek further guidance regarding such restrictions before distributing the Note. The Note is for clients only, and not for publication, and has been prepared for information purposes only by DNB Markets - a division of DNB Bank ASA registered in Norway with registration number NO (the Register of Business Enterprises) under supervision of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet), The Monetary Authority of Singapore, and on a limited basis by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority of the UK, and the Financial Supervisory Authority of Sweden. Details about the extent of our regulation by local authorities outside Norway are available from us on request. Information about DNB Markets can be found at dnb.no. Additional information for clients in Singapore The Note has been distributed by the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA. It is intended for general circulation and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any product referred to in the Note, taking into account your specific financial objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase any such product. You have received a copy of the Note because you have been classified either as an accredited investor, an expert investor or as an institutional investor, as these terms have been defined under Singapore s Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) ( FAA ) and/or the Financial Advisers Regulations ( FAR ). The Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA is a financial adviser exempt from licensing under the FAA but is otherwise subject to the legal requirements of the FAA and of the FAR. By virtue of your status as an accredited investor or as an expert investor, the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA is, in respect of certain of its dealings with you or services rendered to you, exempt from having to comply with certain regulatory requirements of the FAA and FAR, including without limitation, sections 25, 27 and 36 of the FAA. Section 25 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to disclose material information concerning designated investment products which are recommended by the financial adviser to you as the client. Section 27 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to have a reasonable basis for making investment recommendations to you as the client. Section 36 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to include, within any circular or written communications in which he makes recommendations concerning securities, a statement of the nature of any interest which the financial adviser (and any person connected or associated with the financial adviser) might have in the securities. Please contact the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA at in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the Note. The Note is intended for and is to be circulated only to persons who are classified as an accredited investor, an expert investor or an institutional investor. If you are not an accredited investor, an expert investor or an institutional investor, please contact the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA at We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may have interests in any products referred to in the Note by acting in various roles including as distributor, holder of principal positions, adviser or lender. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities. In addition, we, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may buy or sell products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in the Note. Additional Information, including for Recipients in the In the United States: The Note does not constitute an offer to sell or buy a security and does not include information, opinions, or recommendations with respect to securities of an issuer or an analysis of a security or an issuer; rather, it is a market letter, as the term is defined in NASD Rule 2211.

43 Husholdningenes gjeld i prosent av BNP Kilder: BIS og OECD Markets 43

44 Norge: Anslag Lavere vekst, høyere ledighet Makroøkonomiske nøkkeltall. Norge Endring fra oktober pp Privat forbruk Offentlig forbruk Oljeinvesteringer Fastlandsinvesteringer Trad. vareeksport Trad. vareimport BNP Fastlands-Norge Sysselsetting Arbeidsledighet (AKU) Årslønn Konsumpriser KPI-JAE Sparerate Boligpris m NIBOR Oljepris (USD/fat) Oljepris (NOK/fat) EURNOK USDNOK Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets desember 2014

45 Blir det «bubbles» hvis renten ligge for lavt, for lenge? Markets 45