Morgenrapport, onsdag, 13. juni 2012

Transkript

1 Morgenrapport, onsdag, 13. juni 2012 Videre oppgang i spanske og italienske statsrenter Italia nok en gang i søkelyset mens regjeringens popularitet daler Svak industriproduksjon i Storbritannia Stemningen blant amerikanske små og mellomstore foretak om lag uendret i mai Omsetningen i amerikansk detaljhandel ventes å ha falt litt i mai Internasjonalt Dramatikken i eurosonen tiltar stadig. Oppgangen i spanske og italienske statsrenter fortsatte i går, og renten på spanske statsobligasjoner med tiårs løpetid ligger nå på 6,72 prosent, ikke langt unna toppnivåene i november i fjor. Kredittvurderingsbyrået Fitch nedgraderte i går ytterligere 18 spanske banker og advarer om at selv eurosoneland med høyest kredittverdighet kan bli nedgradert dersom krisen forverrer seg. Den østerrikske finansministeren skapte stor misnøye hos italienske myndigheter i går da hun uttalte at Italia også kunne få behov for en redningspakke. Den umusikalske uttalelsen til tross; den høye statsgjelden og svake vekstutsikter gjør Italia svært sårbar for en ytterligere oppgang i statsrentene selv om vi i utgangspunktet anser Spanias problemer som større. Etter å ha falt markert etter årsskiftet har de italienske tiårsrentene de siste dagene igjen steget til over seks prosent. Den italienske statsgjelden utgjør drøyt 120 prosent av BNP. Gjeldsgraden er altså 40 prosentpoeng høyere enn i Spania, og den italienske statens gjeld utgjorde 23 prosent av den samlede statsgjelden i eurosonen i Budsjettunderskuddene er imidlertid mindre enn i Spania; EU-kommisjonen anslår at underskuddet blir 3,9 prosent av BNP i år før det faller til 2,0 prosent neste år. Primærbalansen, altså budsjettbalansen før rentekostnader, er positiv. Samtidig er gjeldsbelastningen i privat sektor betydelig lavere enn i Spania, og banksektoren har ikke blitt rammet av en tilsvarende kollaps i eiendomssektoren, selv om også italienske banker har brukt den billige finansieringen fra Den europeiske sentralbanken (ESB) til å kjøpe sitt eget lands statsobligasjoner og slik gjort skjebnefellesskapet med staten tettere. Arbeidsledigheten var i april 10,2 prosent. Den største utfordringen for Italia er å få fart på den økonomiske veksten. Lav produktivitetsvekst har ført til en betydelig svekkelse av den kostnadsmessige konkurranseevnen siden opprettelsen av eurosonen og bidratt til at driftsbalansen har gått fra pluss til minus. Italia gikk inn i resesjon i fjerde kvartal i fjor, og nedturen ble dypere i første kvartal da BNP falt med 0,8 prosent. Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF) anslår at verdiskapningen vil falle med 1,9 prosent i år og 0,3 prosent i Statsminister Mario Montis teknokratregjering har iverksatt budsjettkutt og reformer blant annet av pensjonssystemet, mens møter motstand i forsøkene på å gjøre arbeidsmarkedet mer fleksibelt, og regjeringens popularitet er dalende. Blikket rettes nå mot det greske parlamentsvalget på søndag. I et innlegg i Financial Times i dag gjentar lederen for den venstreradikale alliansen SYRIZA, Alexis Tsipras, at hans parti ønsker at Hellas skal forbli i eurosonen, men at han vil erstatte innstrammingsprogrammet som ble avtalt med troikaen EU, ESB og IMF i mars med en nasjonal plan for gjenoppbygging og vekst. Ifølge meningsmålingene kjemper SYRIZA med konservative Nytt Demokrati om å bli det største partiet i valget. Retorikken er hard på begge sider, men vi tror både Tsipras og troikaen vil være villige til å inngå kompromisser etter en eventuell valgseier til SYRIZA. Det spørs likevel om ikke avstanden er for stor. Selv om en avtale skulle komme på plass etter valget tror vi en gresk konkurs er uunngåelig på lengre sikt og at sannsynligheten for en gresk exit er stor. Presset øker på Tyskland for å akseptere en form for felles gjeldsutstedelse (euroobligasjoner) eller en bankunion med en felles europeisk innskuddsgaranti og et stabiliseringsfond som kan skyte inn kapital direkte i bankene, men forbundskansler Angela Merkel er fortsatt avvisende. Den britiske finansministeren stilte i går spørsmålet om en gresk sorti fra eurosamarbeidet var det som måtte til for å få Tyskland til å gi etter. NFIB-indeksen som måler stemningen blant små og mellomstore amerikanske foretak i mai kom inn om lag uendret fra april. Dette var litt bedre enn ventet på forhånd. Indeksen ligger imidlertid fortsatt langt under nivåene før finanskrisen. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

2 I Storbritannia falt produksjonen i tilvirkningsindustrien uventet i april. Produksjonen falt med 0,7 prosent etter å ha steget med 0,9 prosent måneden før. Trenden i industriproduksjonen har vært negativ siden mai i fjor, og produksjonen ligger langt under toppnivåene før finanskrisen. Storbritannia gikk inn i resesjon i første kvartal i år, og IMF anslår at BNP-veksten i år vil bli beskjedne 0,8 prosent. Den britiske sentralbanken annonserte ingen nye kvantitative etter rentemøtet forrige uke, men et av medlemmene i den pengepolitiske komiteen, Adam Posen, tok i går til orde for at sentralbanken skulle kjøpe private verdipapirer for å stimulere veksten. Referatet fra rentemøtet blir offentliggjort onsdag neste uke. i mai. Våre svenske kolleger tror inflasjonen vil holde seg lav det neste året, og lavere enn det den svenske sentralbanken anslår. Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall er de amerikanske detaljhandelstallene for mai. Etter å ha steget med solide 1,7 prosent i første kvartal, avtok veksten i detaljhandelen markert i april og det ventes nå et lite fall i omsetningen i mai, hovedsakelig som følge av lavere bensinpriser. Vi får også statistikk for industriproduksjonen i eurosonen i april og endelige tall for tysk inflasjon i mai. Inflasjonen i Sverige, målt ved tolvmånedersveksten i KPI, falt som ventet fra 1,3 prosent i april til 1,0 prosent Norge Kronen fortsatte å styrke seg mot euroen i gårsdagens handel, og stengte på 7,5150 i amerikansk handletid. I løpet av natten har det kun vært små bevegelser i krysset EUR/NOK. Det er verdt å merke seg at krysset nå handler på nivåer ned mot de vi så tidlig i mars hvor markedene i ettertid har vært preget av økt risikoaversjon og fallende oljepris. I så måte er dette et styrketegn for kronen. De nærmeste dagene ser vi for oss at krysset vil handle innenfor 7,47-7,56. Vi venter ingen nøkkeltall for norsk økonomi i dag. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Ida Wolden Bache Analytikere: Knut Anton Mork, , knmo01@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, , kadu01@handelsbanken.no Ida Wolden Bache, , idba01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

3 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK EUR/USD USD/NOK USD/JPY SEK/NOK EUR/JPY Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK EUR/GBP ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK GBP/USD CHF/NOK EUR/CHF JPY/NOK EUR/SEK Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK EUR/DKK Foliorente SGD/NOK USD/KRW EUR/NOK CAD/NOK USD/RUB Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 09:30 Sverige KPI Mai Prosent år/år 1,3 1,0 1,0 09:30 Sverige KPIF Mai Prosent år/år 1,0 0,9 0,9 10:30 Storbritannia Industriproduksjon April Prosent m/m 0,9 0, :30 USA NFIB sentiment Mai Indeks 94,5 94,0 94,4 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 08:00 Tyskland KPI, endelig Mai Prosent år/år 1,9 1, :00 Tyskland HKPI, endelig Mai Prosent år/år 2,1 2, :00 Eurosonen Industriproduksjon April Prosent m/m -0,3-1, :30 USA Detaljhandel Mai Prosent m/m 0,1-0, :30 USA Detaljhandel u/biler Mai Prosent m/m 0,1 0, :30 USA Næringslivslagre April Prosent m/m 0,3 0, juni

4 Research Disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ) is responsible for the preparation of research reports. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information which SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been given to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approval the accuracy of the facts presented. The subject company has not been notified of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. Any opinions expressed are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and reflect their judgment at this date and are subject to change, and there can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalized investment advice. Reliance should not be placed on such reports or opinions expressed therein when making investment or strategic decisions. SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. SHB and/or its affiliates provide investment banking and noninvestment banking financial services, including corporate banking services; and, securities advice to issuers of securities mentioned in research reports. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Distribution of our research in any such other jurisdictions may constitute a violation of UK or US securities laws, or the law of any such other jurisdiction. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen), and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. From time to time, we may offer investment banking and other services to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We buy and sell the securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the FSA Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). The research reports are directed only at Relevant Persons, other persons should not act or rely on such reports or any of their contents. UK customers should note that SHB does not participate in the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. The views contained in SHB research reports accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts, and no part of analysts compensation is directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. For specific analyst certification, please contact Robert Gärtner on tel In the United Kingdom SHB is regulated by the Financial Services Authority but recipients should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme nor the rules of the FSA made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of private customers apply to this research report. When Distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person. Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Each analyst identified in this research report certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report, and that no part of such analyst s compensation has been or will be related, directly or indirectly, to specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number For company-specific disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: Those wishing to see the disclosure text who do not have the access to the website, please contact Robert Gärtner on tel Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, In Finland by the Financial Supervision of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. SHB has recently had, currently has, or will be seeking corporate finance assignments with the subject company. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted guidelines to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify, eliminate, avoid, deal with, or make public actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Chinese walls ) in communication between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The guidelines also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines and guidelines on conflicts of interests relating to analysts, please see the Bank s website the bank/investor relations/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines or Guidelines for research. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances.

5 Contact information Capital Markets Michael Green Head Per Elcar Global co-head of Equities Björn Linden Global co-head of Equities Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research and Chief Economist, SHB Magnus Fageräng Head of Structured Products Peter Karlsson Head of Equity & Credit Research Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange & Commodities Carl Cederschiöld Head of Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Håkan Larsson Head of Currencies Magnus Strömer Head of Commodities Patrik Castman-Langlet Head of Derivative Sales Lars Henriksson Head of F/X Sales Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Kjell Arvidsson Head of Loans Per Jäderberg Head of Structured Finance Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Economic Research Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Swedish Economy Eva Dorenius Web Editor Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head Martin Enlund Senior Strategist FI/FX Johan Sahlström Senior Credit Strategist Therese Öhlin Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Economic Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Danish economy Thomas Haugaard Latin America, Emerging Markets Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Economic Research Tuulia Asplund Finnish economy Olli Hyytiäinen Finnish economy Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Economic Research Ida Wolden Bache Norwegian economy Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Kari Due-Andresen Norwegian economy Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Karl-Johan Svensson Gävle Andreas Edvardson Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Christiane Junio Malmö Jonas Darte Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Umeå Kenneth Båtsman Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC